India, the Lingaraja Temple, one of the finest Hindu shrines, as well as the Shiva Temple date from this period.67 Seafaring empires existed in Java and Sumatra, which reached its height around 1180. Ninth century Java erected the vast stupa of Borobudur; other temples—the Medut, Pawon, Kelasan and Prambanan — originate in this era. In the early twelfth century, the predecessors of the Cambodians, the Khmers, built the magnificent temple of Angkor Wat.68 In the eleventh century Burmese civilization reached a pinnacle. In or around its capital, Pagan, between 931 and 1284, succeeding kings competed in constructing vast numbers of sacred monuments and even a library. 69 Today the area is a dusty plain littered with the crumbling remains of about 13,000 temples and pagodas, built in a more hospitable era. The Americas Starting around 800 to 900 A.D., the indigenous peoples of North America extended their agriculture northward up the Mississippi, Missouri, and Illinois river basins. By 1000 they were farming in southwestern and western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. 70 They grew com in northwestern Iowa prior to 1200 in an area which is now marginal for rainfall.71 Indian settlements on the northern plains of Iowa were abandoned with colder drier weather that set in after 1150 to 1200. After that time, the natives substituted bison hunting for growing crops. In general the land east of the Rocky Mountains enjoyed wetter conditions from 700 to 1200 and then turned drier as it experienced greater intrusions of colder Arctic weather. In the Southwest, which received more rainfall during the warm period, the Anasazi civilization of Mesa Verde flourished until the climate cooled and became drier near the end of the thirteenth century.. The Mini Ice Age The Little Ice Age is even less well defined than the medieval warm period. Climatologists are generally agreed that, at least for Europe, North America, New Zealand and Greenland, temperatures fell after 1300 to around 1800 or 1850, although with many ups and downs. Temperatures may have dipped by as much as 9°F in the two hundred years from 1200 to 1400, a drop of about the same magnitude as the maximum rise forecast from a doubling of CO2. There was a cold period in the first decade of the fourteenth century, another around 1430 and again in 1560. The worst period for most of 67 Carruth [1993]: 151. 68Langer [1968]: 372. 70Lamb [1977]: 249. 71Lamb (1982): 177. the world occurred between 1550 and 1700.72 These frigid times did bring hardships, and as the chart shows world population growth slowed. For much of these centuries, famine and disease stalked Europe and Asia. The cold during this period produced some of the greatest windstorms ever recorded in Europe. A terrible tempest destroyed the Spanish Armada in 1588. Fierce gales wracked Europe in December 1703 and on Christmas Day 1717.73 The contrast between the cold northern temperatures which moved south and the warm subtropical Atlantic undoubtedly generated a fierce jet stream. Although we lack any information, this may also, have enhanced tornado activity on the plains of the United States.74 The deteriorating climate in Europe was heralded by harvest failure in the last quarter of the thirteenth century. One of the first severe bouts of cold wet weather afflicted Europe from 1310 to 1319, leading to large scale crop failures.75 Harvest deficits and hunger preceded the Black Death by 40 years.76 Scanty food output contributed to a decline in population which was aggravated by disease. People poorly nourished were quickly carried off by disease. The unpleasant weather is likely to have confined people to their homes where they were more likely to be exposed to the fleas that carried the bubonic plague. In addition the inclement weather may have induced rats to take shelter in human buildings, exposing their inhabitants to the bacillus. The poorer climate in Europe after the thirteenth century brought a halt to the economic boom of the High Middle Ages. Innovation slowed sharply.77 Except for military advances, technological improvements ceased for the next 150 years. Population growth not only ended but, with starvation and the black death, fell. The economic slump of 1337 brought on the collapse of the great Italian bank, Scali, leading to one of the first recorded major financial crises.78 Construction on churches and cathedrals halted. The cold had devastating effects elsewhere in the world. In China, frosts killed the orange trees in Kiangsi province between 1646 and 1676.79 Per capita incomes fell as food prices rose. As already mentioned, cooler weather brought an end to the Anastazi Indian pueblo culture, as well as ending native American farming in the upper middle west. 72Lamb [1977]: 463. 73Lamb (1988): 158. 74Lamb (1977): 467. 75 Lamb [1977]: 454. 76Lamb [1977]: 266. 77Gimpel [1983]: 150. 78 Gimpel [1983]: 151. 79Lamb (1977): 471. Costs and Benefits of Efforts to Mitigate Warming If mankind had to choose between a warmer or a cooler climate, humans, most other animals and, after adjustment, most plants would be better off with higher temperatures. Not all animals or plants would prosper under these conditions; many are adapted to the current weather and might have difficulty making the transition. Society might wish to help natural systems and various species adapt to warmer temperatures (or cooler, should that occur). Whether the climate will warm is far from certain; that it will change is unquestionable. The weather has changed in the past and will no doubt continue to vary in the future. Human activity is likely to play only a small and uncertain role in climate change. The burning of fossil fuel may generate an enhanced greenhouse effect or the release into the atmosphere of particulates may cause cooling. It may also be simply hubris to believe that Homo Sapiens can affect significantly temperatures, rainfall and winds. As noted, not all regions or all peoples benefit from a shift to a warmer climate. Some locales may become too dry or too wet; others may become too warm. Certain areas may be subject to high pressure systems which block storms and rains. Other parts may experience the reverse. On the whole, though, mankind should benefit from an upward tick in the thermometer. Warmer weather means longer growing seasons, more rainfall overall, and fewer and less violent storms. The optimal way to deal with potential climate change is not to strive to prevent it, a useless activity in any case, but to promote growth and prosperity so that people will have the resources to deal with any shift. It is much easier for a rich country such as the United States to adapt to any long term shift in weather than it is for poor countries, most of which are considerably more dependent on agriculture than the rich industrial nations. Such populations lack the resources to aid their flora and fauna in adapting, and many of their farmers earn too little to survive a shift to new conditions. These agriculturally dependent societies could suffer real hardship if the climate shifts quickly. The best preventive would be a rise in incomes, which would diminish their dependence on agriculture. Higher earnings would provide them with the resources to adjust. Should warming become apparent at some time in the future and should it create more difficulties than benefits, policy makers would have to consider preventive measures. Based on history, however, global warming is likely to be positive for most of mankind while the additional carbon, rain, and warmth should also promote plant growth that can sustain an expanding world population. Global change is inevitable; warmer is better; richer is healthier. Bibliography Ammerman, Albert J. and L.L. Cavalli-Sforze. [1984]. The Neolithic Transition and the Genetics of Populations in Europe, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.. Bartlett, Robert [1993]. The Making of Europe: Conquest, Colonization and Cultural Change 950-1350, Princeton: Princeton University Press. Boserup, Ester. [1981]. Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-Term Trends, Chicago: University of Chicago. Carruth, Gorton. [1993]. The Encyclopedia of World Facts and Dates, New York: Harper Collins. 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