REVIEW OF

TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA), under contract to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, had developed a forecast of technology penetrations in automobiles for model year 1995 in a study for the DOE conducted in 1989, and summarized in a report to DOE entitled "Domestic Manufacturer's Fuel Economy Capability to 2000" (December, 1989). The tables showing the aggregate projection for all three domestic manufacturers for model year 1995 are attached, and these tables received considerable attention in the context of the then ongoing debates regarding changes to the CAFE regulations.

EEA had forecast that domestic manufacturers would attain 28.0 MPG in 1995 in the "product plan" case, which is the case to be referenced as no changes to CAFE regulations occurred in the interviewing years. The forecast was prepared under an assumed fuel price for 1995 of approximately $1.40 per gallon in 1995 dollars, while actual prices are in the $1.15 range. According to the DOT, the mid-year estimate of the domestic manufacturers CAFE is 275 MPG, which is 0.5 MPG lower than the CAFE estimate by EEA in 1989.

A detailed review of the technology penetrations estimated for 1995 to those forecast by EEA revealed that EEA's forecasts were generally quite close to the actual 1995 penetrations. Forecast penetration of front wheel drive, 4-speed automatic transmissions, torque converter lock-up, and electronic transmission control are with 2 percent of the 1995 actuals. EEA overestimated the penetration of overhead cam (OHC) engines and roller cam followers by about 10 percent. However, GM has improved their OHV

engines to such an extent that these engines are essentially equivalent to the OHC engines. EEA underestimated the penetration of multipoint fuel injection by over 30 percent, as throttle-body systems have been phased out by multipoint almost completely. 4-valve per cylinder engine penetration was accurately estimated by EEA, but the accompanying engine downsizing to maintain constant performance did not occur; instead, there are several models for 4-valve V-8 engines that provide 250 to 300 HP, an event not forecast by EEA.

EEA did not forecast any weight reduction in the 1989-1995 time frame, but also did not forecast weight increases that have occurred recently. Most new models have significant improvements to body stiffness in bending and torsion, and as a result, weigh 100 to 150 lbs more than their older counterparts. Examples include the Chrysler Cirrus/Stratus, Ford Contour/Mystique and GM LeSabre/Olds 88. Indeed, the only vehicle which showed significant weight reduction in this time frame is the Chrysler Neon.

The technology based estimates of fuel economy benefit are quite close to the actual achieved levels, to within 1.5 percent. The weight increases associated with body stiffness improvements are the major reason for the difference between EEA estimates and actual 1995 CAFE, while performance and sales mix estimation error are smaller reasons. A preliminary estimate suggests that performance increase caused a 0.7 MPG loss rather than 0.6 forecast, while sales mix shifts caused a 1.5 MPG loss, rather than the 1.4 MPG forecast. The additional 0.3 MPG loss is associated with the changes to body stiffness, for a total reduction of 0.5 MPG.

Number in parenthesis for advanced pushrod indicates 45 percent of pushrod engines replaced by OHC engines.

N/M: Not meaningful.

Drag reduction for large/luxury cars from Co= 0.42 baseline.

1987 distribution: 20.5% V-8, 29.5% V-6, 50% 4 cylinder.

FCCC/SB/1996/L.1

page 23

Annex

INITIAL LIST OF ITEMS ON WHICH THE IPCC COULD PROVIDE INPUT TO THE SBSTA

Already included in the IPCC programme of work for 1996-1997

Using previous IPCC pocr review process.