improve the quality of engineering education and the utilization of the engineers who are available.

2

The Bureau of the Census estimates that between 1955 and 1965 the total population of the United States will increase by 15 percent, those between the ages of 20 and 24 (roughly the college age) by 25 percent, and those between 25 and 54 (the active productive labor force) by 4 percent. These figures clearly indicate the need for increased productivity of the labor force, which must come from increased numbers of students pursuing higher education programs, and more importantly from the improvements in the quality of such programs and from more effective utilization of their graduates.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that during the same 10-year period total employment will increase by 17 percent, nonagricultural employment by 23 percent, and employment in positions classified as "professional, technical, and kindred" by 43 percent. By coincidence this last prediction agrees exactly with the projected increase in gross national product.

It should in all fairness be pointed out that the average annual shortages of engineers indicated in table II are approximately 25 percent of the average number of students expected to earn engineering bachelors' degrees, and only about 1 percent of the estimated number of available engineering jobs.

It should also be pointed out that such annual manpower shortages do not accumulate, and therefore we cannot say that if these estimates are correct there will be a shortage of 95,000 engineers at the end of 10 years. There may be some cumulative effect, but in most instances a company which fails to recruit as many engineers as it plans to use simply gets along with those it can hire, and leaves undone some of the things it had planned to do. It may seek to employ the same number of engineers the following year, but it is most unlikely to seek twice as many.

These two facts have led many to believe that the engineering supply and demand are very nearly in balance. However, it must be remembered that the foregoing estimates are based on the normal growth of the country and on a continuation of the existing general political, economic, and social climate with no major war or depression. A war would greatly expand the need for engineers; a major depression could seriously reduce it. As this is written, the country is experiencing a minor reduction in industrial activity, and the market for engineers has softened in certain places and certain fields. However, this is in all likelihood a temporary condition which can, and probably will, quickly change as the Nation reacts to the challenge symbolized by sputnik. All the basic trends in this country such as population, productivity, gross national product use of technology in industry, and others, are upwards for the long term, and one who tries to look ahead 10 years can probably disregard such temporary dips in the curve as the current one.

These considerations lead to the conclusion that for at least the next 10 years engineers will continue to be in tight supply unless something is done to increase the supply or decrease the demand.

3 Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, series P-25, No. 123 (October 1955) and No. 170 (December 1957).

Address by Ewan Clague, Commissioner of Labor Statistics, before AFL-CIO Conference on Changing Character of American Industry, Washington, D. C., January 16, 1958.

19.5

1 728.0

169.0

19.5

1 152.4

111.6

17.6

Earned degrees conferred in selected fields of study-Aggregate United States. 1952-53 and 1956-571

Includes continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

* Astronomy, meteorology, metallurgy, etc.

Source: Office of Education Circulars 380 and 499 (U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C., 1954 and 1957).

Mr. DERTHICK. Mr. Chairman, at the outset, I would like to say that it is our conviction that the best schools in our country are unsurpassed anywhere in the world. We think the task is to spread the practices of the best schools to all schools.

We feel that our legislation is designed to contribute to that end. Mr. Chairman, I might explain one other feature of our approach this morning. Some of our colleagues who are specialists in the Office of Education are here with us today, and as we participate in the discussion, we want to draw upon their knowledge and experience. I think it will be a real contribution.

I refer to Mr. Flynt, Mr. Ludington, Dr. Blauch, and Mr. Sneed. Of course, we in the Office of Education are particularly gratified to have the Under Secretary, Dr. Perkins; and the Assistant Secretary, Mr. Richardson, with us.

The CHAIRMAN. We are glad to have you here this morning. Whenever you think any one of the gentlemen might add something to the presentation, do not hesitate to ask him to proceed.

IDENTIFICATION OF ABLE STUDENTS

Mr. DERTHICK. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

It is clear, I believe, that the identification of able students who can profit from further education is an essential first step in developing the Nation's manpower resources. Early identification of the abilities of all students provides the high school counselor and the students with information essential to them in planning their high school programs and developing educational objectives. Test results and other personnel records enable counselors and teachers to advise and encourage students and their parents to make long-range educational plans. Regrettably, this is not being done, or certainly not being done as effectively as it should be, for large numbers of students today.

The CHAIRMAN. Excuse me, Doctor. I am glad to see that you include the parents along with the students. I think that is very, very important. I have sometimes wondered whether we give enough emphasis to the parents, recognizing their influence and the environment that naturally surround the child.

Mr. DERTHICK. Mr. Chairman, we feel that that is an essential part of our program. After we have this early identification of talent, we conceive of guidance counselors, teachers, visiting teachers, and all members of the counseling team working with the parents so that they may be oriented, and they may have the information and help in planning the educational futures of their children.

RETENTION AND WITHDRAWAL OF COLLEGE STUDENTS

In a study recently completed by the Office, entitled "Retention and Withdrawal of College Students," it was found that 32.4 percent of the 1,200,000 graduates of public and private secondary schools in 1950 entered college in the fall of 1950 as full-time students; and that an additional 11 percent continued their education on a part-time basis. One-half of the high school graduates who stood in the upper half of their classes did not go on to college on a full-time basis, and one-third did not go to college at all. Of students ranking in the upper 30 percent of high school graduating classes, 40 percent did not go on to college on a full-time basis, and 1 in 5 never enrolled in college.

Currently, with the assistance of a grant under the cooperative research program provided for by Public Law 531, 83d Congress, the University of Wisconsin is engaged in a study of the plans of high hool graduates of that State. A progress report of this study was made by Dr. J. Kenneth Little, director of institutional studies of that university, before the House Subcommittee on Special Education, hearings were held in Eau Claire, Wis., October 28, 1957.

PLANS OF TOP ONE-FOURTH OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

Based upon the questionnaire returns of 34,000 public high school graduates and defining the superior group as the top one-fourth based on school grades, Dr. Little found that 27 percent of boys and 35 percent of the girls indicated that they had no plans to continue their education.

We are concerned that this sort of thing is occurring all over the country. Lack of understanding of potentialities, lack of motivation to continue education beyond high school, and financial reasons account for the loss of most of the superior students who drop out of school before completing their education. In the interest of national security, it seems to me that we are compelled to take steps to reduce this waste of talent-lost or undeveloped talent, which we sorely need in order to meet the critical demands for scientists, engineers, teachers, technicians, and all other occupations where shortages exist.

Moreover, our concern is deepened by the fact that the needs of our expanding population in the years to come, estimated by some to reach a maximum of 250 million by 1980, must be fulfilled from a very restricted pool of young manpower.

COMING SCARCITY IN LEADERSHIP AGE GROUP

Let me cite only one example which will dramatize the situation. In 1957 there were 2,303,000 18-year-olds. Twenty-three years from now in 1980, when it is estimated that our population will number 250 million, there will be fewer than 2,303,000 persons 40 years of age-an age at which it can be expected that many persons will have begun to assume leadership positions. This means, in final analysis, that there will be an almost inconceivable scarcity in the leadership age groups 20 to 25 years from now. I submit, Mr. Chairman, that we cannot afford less than the fullest possible achievement and contribution from our youth of today who will be our leadership of

tomorrow.

Our democratic system of education stresses the essentiality of the greatest possible degree of free choice of programs of study. The validity of this educational process depends upon the availability of adequate basic information for the use of teachers, counselors, other school personnel, and of parents and students. It also requires the services of qualified counseling personnel to aid in this process.

TESTS AND STUDENT RECORDS

Tests designed to measure abilities and special aptitudes, when used in conjunction with student records and other information, are reliable for early identification. Many of our high schools and a few States do some guidance testing, but much of it is incomplete and not adequately followed up with individual counseling to make full use of the test results. Also, many schools have inadequate student record systems.

Test results and other cumulative student data can result in good educational planning by students and their families, only if the facts are properly interpreted and utilized by the students and their parents. Yet it is estimated that not more than one-half the high-school students in the Nation are provided with the services of a well-rounded counseling program. Contributing to this situation is a severe shortage of qualified guidance personnel.

NEED FOR MORE WELL-PREPARED COUNSELORS

As might be expected, there is wide variation from school to school and from State to State in the distribution of counseling personnel employed, in the extent of counselor preparation, and in the num