SOME HIGHLIGHTS OF THE 1957 SURVEY

1. Total engineering enrollment reached the highest level in our history, 297,077 students, an increase of 7.2 percent over last year, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent for all college enrollment.

2. Engineering freshmen enrollment, 78,757 students, the second highest in history, is 1.3 percent above last year compared with a 0.9 percent increase for all college first-time students.

3. The number of engineering bachelor's degrees awarded in the United States and its outlying parts increased 18.6 percent from the year before, while the number of master's rose 10.8 percent, and the number of doctorates declined 2.3 percent. Comparable final data for all college degrees are not yet available, but it is estimated that all bachelor's degrees rose 6.8 percent, all master's, 14.8 percent, and all doctorates, 2.3 percent.

1 Includes administrative engineering, management engineering, etc.

1 Engineering degrees requiring work beyond the master's degree, but less than the requirements for a doctor's degree.

2 Includes administrative engineering, management engineering, etc.

TABLE 3.-Engineering enrollment, by level: fall 1949 to fall 1957 (higher educational institutions in the United States and its outlying parts)

TABLE 4.-Engineering degrees conferred, by level: 1948-49 to 1956-57 (higher educational institutions in the United States and its outlying parts)

AN ESTIMATE OF ENGINEERING SUPPLY AND DEMAND, 1955-65

By Henry H. Armsby, Chief for Engineering Education, January 24, 1958 The tables below represent an attempt to combine figures from various sources in order to get an estimate of the relationship between supply of and demand for engineers over the near future.

1

Table I presents estimates by the National Science Foundation of the number of available engineering jobs for the years 1955 and 1960, and for the year 1965 a direct interpolation between the Foundation's estimates for 1960 and 1970.

1 Trends in the Employment of Scientists and Engineers, NSF-56-11, May 1956.

Table II presents yearly averages for the two 5-year periods indicated. The various items are explained on the following pages.

1. New enginering jobs available. This represents one-fifth of the increase in estimated available engineering jobs for the 5-year period as shown in part I. In other words, it is the estimated average number of new engineering jobs per year for the period.

2. Deaths and retirements.-These figures are estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics based on the numbers in item 1 above.

3. Total demand for new engineers.-This is simply the sum of items 1 and 2 above, and represents the estimated average annual demand for new engineers. 4. Engineering bachelor's degrees.-This represents the average number of engineering bachelor of science degrees per year which it is estimated will be granted during the 5-year period. These estimates are based on population and educational trends.

5. Other new engineers.-This represents an estimate to cover the persons who become recognized as engineers without receiving engineering degrees, plus those entering the profession from other fields, minus those leaving engineering to enter other areas of work. The figure used is the average for such persons during the census decade 1940-50, which may well be too high for present conditions, notably the increasing use of science in engineering and the requirements for registration of engineers.

6. Total supply of new engineers.-This figure is the sum of items 4 and 5 above, and is the estimated total average annual supply of new engineers.

7. Deficit. This figure represents the difference between item 3 and item 6 above, and represents the estimated net average annual deficit in new engineers.

REMARKS

Such estimates as those in tables I and II above involve many unknown factors, are subject to many possible errors, and can at best be considered only as approximations. For example, it has been pointed out by officials of the Bureau of Labor Statistics that more accurate forecasts of engineering jobs could probably be made on an industry-by-industry basis. However, until this is done, the estimates of the National Science Foundation herein quoted are the best available, and their use results in a generally adequate picture of future needs for engineers.

The estimates of engineering degrees are based not merely on population and educational trends, but also on the assumption that those young people desiring an engineering education will be able to secure one. This implies that the engineering colleges can and will be able to provide facilities and staff capable of adequately serving a student body which is expected to increase by 85 percent between 1955 and 1965 (135 percent by 1970). It is to be hoped that this assumption is valid, but its realization will call for great efforts by all concerned the colleges, the State and Federal Governments, and the public.

Even if these numbers of new engineers are realized, and especially if they are not, the national welfare demands that every possible effort be made to

'Trends in Engineering Education-1939-40 to 1970-71, revised January 24, 1958, prepared by Henry H. Armsby, U. S. Office of Education.