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There are 30 million people 60 years of and over in the United age States. Their number increases daily. Congress, adopting the Older Americans Act of 1965, and subsequently amending it, has taken due notice of them.

AGING, official publication of the National Clearinghouse on Aging in the U.S. Administration on Aging, reports on programs for, by, and with this large and important segment of our population. It reports on what States, area agencies on aging, and foreign countries are doing in the field.

AGING has been called "the single most comprehensive" source of such news. It is must reading for those in the field.

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AGING Magazine welcomes news and information from its readers. Especially valuable are stories about innovative programs or projects which have worked well and can be duplicated or adapted for use elsewhere. Material should be typed and should not exceed 15 pages double-spaced. Articles may be bylined. In all cases the Editor reserves the right to make changes in length or style or presentation.

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All material should be sent to Editor, AGING Magazine, Administration on Aging, Room 4551, 330 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20201.

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Published since June 1951 Contents may be reproduced or reprinted without permission, but credit to Aging is ap preciated

Use of funds for printing this publication approved by the Director of the Bureau of the Budget, October 31, 1966

DISCRIMINATION PROHIBITEDTitle VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 states No person in the United States shall on the ground of race, color or national origin be excluded from participa tion in be denied the benefits of or be subjected to discrimination under any

program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance Therefore, the programs discussed in this publication like every program or activity receiving financial assistance from the Department of Hea' Education, and Welfare, must be operated in compliance with this law

T

he dramatic aging of the American population will have equally dramatic repercussions for the Nation's economy and social policy in the coming decades, according to HEW Secretary Joseph Califano.

His prediction, made in a speech before The American Academy of Political and Social Science in April, was backed by numerous statistics indicating that $112 billion in benefits-five percent of the GNP and 24 percent of the Federal budget for fiscal 1978 is going to the elderly and that between 2010 and 2025, benefits paid to the aged will represent 10 percent of the GNP and over 40 percent of Federal outlays.

Califano asserted that, "Advances in health and life expectancy signal a dramatic change. The American Nation is about to become a fourgeneration society. The past four decades have seen a steady growth in the number of older citizens: a demographic change so large-and now so striking-that it challenges all our systems for supporting the elderly."

Demographic Trends

Califano described four major demographic trends that will have far-reaching effects on the Federal budget. One is the dramatic increase in life expectancy since 1940. In that year, average life expectancy at birth was about 631⁄2 yearslower than social security's retirement age of 65. Today, life expectancy is 69 for men and 77 for

women.

A second factor is the reappearance of the postwar "baby boom" as a "senior boom" early in the 21st century. By the year 2030, 18 percent of the population or 55 million citizens will be 65 or older, and by the year 2000, 45 percent of the elderly will be 75 or over.

A third factor producing socio-economic ramifications is the trend toward early retirement. Thirty years ago, nearly half of all men 65 and older remained in the workforce. Today only one man in five and one woman in twelve are in the workforce at that age.

Fourth, Califano observed that the ratio of active workers to retired citizens will change

from the present six to one to only three to one by 2030. This ratio is particularly significant, he explained, because it suggests how many active workers are available to support programs for the elderly which represent, and will continue to claim, an increasing share of the Federal budget.

Among programs for the elderly, Califano continued, HEW has direct responsibility for six, including Old Age Insurance, Survivors and Disability Insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, Supplemental Security Income, and Black Lung Benefits, which will pay out over $94 billion this year to those 65 and over. Another $14 billion will be paid to this group under the civil service, railroad, and military retirement programs, and $4 billion will go to the elderly in the form of housing subsidies, food stamps, and social or employment services.

Spending For Aged to Rise

Under these major programs, the Secretary said, real spending is expected to more than triple to $350 billion by the year 2010. Between