Scientific Integrity and Public Trust: The Science Behind Federal Policies and Mandates : Case Study 2--climate Models and Projections of Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change : Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment of the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, One Hundred Fourth Congress, First Session, November 16, 1995, Volume 4U.S. Government Printing Office, 1996 - 1190 pages |
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Page 10
... mean temperature between 1.8 and 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.4 FACTORS LIMITING THE ACCURACY OF MODELS ' ESTIMATES General circulation models ' estimates of future climatic changes are considerably better than they were a decade ago ...
... mean temperature between 1.8 and 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.4 FACTORS LIMITING THE ACCURACY OF MODELS ' ESTIMATES General circulation models ' estimates of future climatic changes are considerably better than they were a decade ago ...
Page 12
... mean that there is no plausible alternative . In effect , the bet is off the books . Very probable means I estimate a nine out of ten chance that this will happen within the range predicted . Probable implies about a two out of three ...
... mean that there is no plausible alternative . In effect , the bet is off the books . Very probable means I estimate a nine out of ten chance that this will happen within the range predicted . Probable implies about a two out of three ...
Page 13
... mean that there is a plau- sible effect but it lacks appropriate scientific evidence . Essentially I set the odds ... mean surface warming : very probable . For the mid- dle of the next century , global - mean surface warming is ...
... mean that there is a plau- sible effect but it lacks appropriate scientific evidence . Essentially I set the odds ... mean surface warming : very probable . For the mid- dle of the next century , global - mean surface warming is ...
Page 18
... mean that there is no plausible alternative ; in effect , the bet is off the books . " Very Probable " means I estimate about a 9 out of 10 chance that this will happen within the range predicted ; " Probable " implies about a 2 out of ...
... mean that there is no plausible alternative ; in effect , the bet is off the books . " Very Probable " means I estimate about a 9 out of 10 chance that this will happen within the range predicted ; " Probable " implies about a 2 out of ...
Page 19
... ) Climate varies naturally on time scales from months to centuries . This effect makes a greenhouse warming interpretation of the climate record much more difficult . Global - Mean Surface Warming ( Very Probable ) For 5 19.
... ) Climate varies naturally on time scales from months to centuries . This effect makes a greenhouse warming interpretation of the climate record much more difficult . Global - Mean Surface Warming ( Very Probable ) For 5 19.
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activities adaptation aerosols AGBM agricultural analysis anthropogenic areas assumptions atmosphere baseline biomass bottom-up carbon dioxide carbon sequestration carbon tax climate change climate models climate system CO₂ emissions concentrations Convention cost-effective costs Dana Rohrabacher developing countries economic ecosystems effects emission reduction energy efficiency environmental estimates expected factors Figure forest forestry fossil fuels future gases Gigagrams Global Change global climate global warming greenhouse gas emissions growth human impacts implementation improved increase industrial inventory IPCC IPCC Working Group issues land methane mitigation ocean OECD options Panel Parties policies and measures potential predictions production projections radiative forcing range reduce emissions regional response ROHRABACHER SBSTA scenarios Science scientific sea level rise Second Assessment Report secretariat sector simulations sources studies Summary for Policymakers Table technical technologies temperature top-down transport uncertainties UNEP United USGCRP