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Notes-Figure 1 pulled from Chapter 1, Table 2 abstracted from data presented in Chapter 13, Figure 3 pulled from Chapter 18, and Figures 5 and 6 pulled from Chapter 19; IPCC (1995) refers Chapter 7 A Generic Assessment of Response Options C.J. Jepma, M. Asaduzzaman, I. Mintzer, Contributors: J. Byrne, H. Geller, C.A. Hendriks, M. Jefferson, G. Leach, A. Qureshi, W. Sassin, RA. Sedjo, A. van der Veen. December 1995 7. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 45 Summary In this chapter, current response options for dealing with climate change are assessed on the basis of their feasibility, acceptability, cost-effectiveness, and applicability. As much as possible, specific attention has been given to the applicability of these various options in the developing countries and countries in transition. The chapter does not, however, contain an evaluation of the (macro)economic effects that large-scale applications of the various options might have in different regions of the world. Conceptually a distinction has to be made between mitigation and adaptation options on the one hand, and indirect options - that is, options that are not designed to have an impact on the greenhouse effect but nevertheless do - on the other. Indeed, many technological developments and various policies have an impact on energy use and thus on the global climate. An effective climate change response strategy should therefore preferably pay attention to possibilities of joining climate response options with responses to other socioeconomic transition phenomena, as in the application of an integrated systems approach. The various response options can be assessed in fundamentally different ways. At one extreme is the engineering efficiency approach, which focuses only on costs and how these are related to internal and external economies of scale and learning effects. At the other extreme is the welfare economic approach which, in addition, considers such welfare aspects as social, political, or environmental resistance to the option's application. Costs associated with the diffusion of technologies, public education, and lifestyle changes are also taken into account. A number of CO2 mitigation options have been proposed, including: energy conservation and efficiency improvement fossil fuel switching renewable energy technologies nuclear energy capture and disposal technologies enhancing sinks, and forestry options Attention has also been focused on reducing emissions of methane. With respect to energy conservation and efficiency improvement, reductions in energy intensities during recent decades have varied widely across countries and also within the group of developing countries. Some of this variation, however, reflects differences in how the underlying variables have been measured. Because reductions in national energy intensities are related to structural changes in national economies, the growth of the secondary sectors in developing countries may give a biased view of their energy efficiency improvement results. In most industrial countries, in contrast, a trend towards "dematerialization" (i.e., a shift away from the highly energy-intensive secondary towards the less energyintensive tertiary sector) has favoured lower energy intensities. There is a broad consensus in the literature in favour of efficiency improvement, because it is seen as directly beneficial irrespective of any impacts on greenhouse warming and because it has significant scope for negative net cost (i.e., no-regret) applications. Because the end use phase is the least efficient part of an energy system, improvements in this area would produce the greatest benefits. The potential for improvements in production seem especially promising, especially in the power production, transportation, steel and cement production, and residential sectors. [THIS IS A BIT CONFUSING. IS POWER PRODUCTION AN END USE? WHAT DOES THE TERM "PRODUCTION" COVER?] The potential in the developing countries is roughly similar in magnitude to that in industrialized countries. By contrast, energy conservation may be achieved somewhat more easily in the industrialized countries. Optimism about the scope for no-regret options with respect to energy efficiency varies considerably and depends to a large extent on the discount rate that is employed. Revealed consumer discount rates for household investments can be very high indeed. Similarly, in developing countries a lack of access to information and limited human capacity [WHAT IS MEANT BY HUMAN CAPACITY?] and financial resources may cause the revealed time preference to be much higher than commercial interest rates. The potential for energy savings is estimated at 10-40% for production and 10-50% for residential use. However, to achieve such results, institutional and information factors are crucial. So too is the degree to which the option may help in deriving other environmental benefits. With respect to fossil fuel switching, relatively little information about costs is available, although it is recognized that fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source for several decades yet. Estimates of the costs of switching vary to |