A/AC.237/81 Explanatory notes The following symbols have been used in the document: Two dots (..) indicate that data are not estimated or reported in the national communication. A hyphen (-) indicates that the item is not applicable. A minus sign (-) indicates a deficit or decrease, except as indicated. A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. (~) before data indicates an approximation. (<) indicates that the actual data is equal or below that provided. (>) indicates that the actual data is equal or greater than that provided. References to "dollars" ($) indicate United States dollars. Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals, because of rounding. communications", document A/AC.237/55, annex I, decision 9/2. References to "IPCC Guidelines" are to IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Text in italics under the tables indicates major source/sink categories from the IPCC Gigagrams (109 grams) A/AC.237/81 e sonship . I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. National communications' were received from 15 Annex I Parties in time to be considered in the preparation of this compilation and synthesis. These Parties accounted for 41 per cent of global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion in 1990.2 Three other communications have since been received. National circumstances 2. Parties emphasized the importance of particular national circumstances. Thirteen Parties mentioned a national target or targets that are supplementary to their Convention commitments. Six of these anticipated that their current or planned policies and measures would achieve their national targets. Several Parties pointed to the evolutionary nature of climate change policy whereby measures are implemented, progress assessed and further measures considered. A number of Parties underlined that they were considering the development and implementation of further policies and measures. Inventories 3. All reporting Parties communicated a 1990 national inventory of emissions by sources and all but one communicated estimates of CO2 removals by sinks. All Parties addressed CO2, CH4, N2O and precursors; some provided estimates of other gases, and some used global warming potentials (GWPS) (see tables A.1-A.8). CO2 was confirmed as being the most important greenhouse gas for the reporting Parties. Fuel combustion was the largest source of CO2 emissions, with most of these emissions coming from energy and transformation industries and transport. "Managed forests" accounted for most CO2 removals. The largest source of CH, was livestock, with waste a close second. N2O emissions came largely from agriculture (fertilizer use) and industrial processes. 4. The degree of confidence associated with CO2 data, in particular from fuel combustion, is high and the estimates are consistent with other authoritative sources. The initial technical analysis of inventories identified information gaps, most often background data or inadequately documented methods. The minimum documentation standards to ensure transparency were not always followed and sufficient information to enable reconstruction of the data was not always provided. A number of potential inconsistencies and difficulties in The term "national communications" includes communications from the regional economic integration organization included in Annex I to the Convention and should also be interpreted as jncluding any supplementary information provided to the interim secretariat by Parties. 2 OECD/IEA, 1994, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Paris, 1994, p. 90; and 1992 IPCC Supplement - Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, WMO/UNEP, Geneva, 1992, p. 8. 23-558 96-15 A/AC.237/81 aggregating and comparing inventory data also arose (for example, the use of adjustments to account for climatic conditions or electricity imports) on which guidance is needed. Policies and measures 5. All reporting Parties are implementing policies and measures to mitigate climate change; most reported actions targeted at the three major greenhouse gases, although the focus was clearly on CO2. Variations in the level of detail of the descriptions of policies and measures (in particular, the status of implementation and estimates of effects) complicated the synthesis process. The following main policy thrusts emerged: 6. Increased competition, improved efficiency and fuel switching in power Improving the efficiency of industrial equipment and processes Improving automobile fuel efficiency, controlling emissions, encouraging Improving energy efficiency in buildings, mechanical systems and appliances Preserving forest biomass and encouraging afforestation Minimizing waste and reducing emissions from landfills The residential, commercial and institutional, transport and industry end-use sectors appear to be where the Parties were most active. When taking into account the limited information on projected effects of measures, the residential, commercial and institutional sector emerges as a major contributor to expected CO2 emissions limitations. 7. A wide array of policy instruments were reported as being used. Regulatory activity focused on appliance and industrial equipment standards, vehicle emission standards for precursors, building codes and forest preservation. There was widespread use of economic instruments, although subsidies, rebates and incentives predominated over taxes, except in a few cases; they were used to improve the efficiency of power generation, promote renewable energy and alternative fuels, encourage the use of public transport and promote afforestation. Taxes were most frequently mentioned in the transport and waste sectors, although broadlybased taxes were mentioned by some Parties. Voluntary agreements were mentioned particularly where large industries were involved. Information and education programmes were notable in the agriculture and waste sectors and in regard to consumer choices in most sectors. Most Parties also reported on research and development programmes aimed at developing technologies or practices to reduce emissions, particularly with regard to energy. 8. The significance of international cooperation for climate change policies and measures was noted frequently, particularly when they could potentially affect trade flows. A/AC.237/81 Page 7 Projections and effects of measures 9. All Parties provided "with measures" projections. In most cases, they addressed the three major greenhouse gases as well as removals by sink in 2000; in some cases, they also gave projections for other gases and precursors. One Party provided figures for 2005 and not for 2000. Detailed information on projections of emissions and removals is provided in tables 1-7. The projections are not comparable between Parties and the individual national totals have not been added. Nine Parties provided estimates of the total effects of measures, often noting methodological difficulties but no clear conclusions emerged. 10. The projections were developed using different approaches and assumptions, although the latter were in line with those used elsewhere. Most Parties provided enough information to allow for a qualitative understanding of the approaches used, although it was often not clear which policies and measures were reflected in the projections. Some Parties adjusted their base year figures upward for reasons of climatic anomalies or electricity imports. 11. The "with measures" projections reveal a different pattern for CO2 emissions than for emissions of other gases. The following observations compare projected figures for 2000 with the 1990 figures used in developing the projections (three of which included "adjustments") rather than with the 1990 inventory figures, since the projections were derived from the former. 12. For CO2 emissions (excluding land use change and forestry) (table 1), nine Parties projected an increase to the year 2000 in the absence of additional measures. Five Parties projected stabilization or a decrease for 2000. Another Party projected only a decrease for 2005. Seven Parties projected increased "net" CO2 removals, from the land use change and forestry sector for 2000, two Parties projected stable removals and one Party, decreasing removals. (The main effect of adjustments is shown in table 1.) 13. For CH, (table 3), all but two Parties projected decreases. No clear picture emerges for N2O (table 4). Few Parties provided projections of other gases (table 5), but for those that did, emissions of PFCs were decreasing, while emissions of HFCs were increasing. If IPCC-1994 GWP values are used to aggregate the emission data for all gases, projected emission levels in 2000 were below 1990 levels for five Parties and above for nine Parties (table 6). One Party projected a decrease to 2005. For three of the Parties whose emissions were projected to grow, the increase was less than 2 per cent. If CO2 removals are included (table 7), then seven Parties project decreases on a CO2 equivalent basis. 14. In due time, it will be possible to assess the achievement of the aim of returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 by comparing the inventory figures for those two years. At A/AC.237/81 present, a comparison of CO2 projections for 2000 with inventories for 1990, would suggest a somewhat greater need for additional measures than is indicated by the above analysis. 15. Several Parties stated that their projections, which incorporated current policies and measures, did not necessarily reflect what they expected their emission levels to be in 2000 as they intended to develop and implement further measures. Finance, technology and capacity building 16. All 14 Annex II Parties that submitted national communications have made commitments to contribute to the replenished Global Environment Facility (GEF); all but one of them contributed to the GEF pilot phase. The level of "new and additional" resources, however, cannot be determined on the basis of the communications as there is no agreed benchmark against which to measure this. Although financing through the GEF is defined in the GEF Instrument as "new and additional", only a few communications indicated explicitly that their contributions to the GEF were "new and additional". All GEF contributions were reported as total contributions to the Facility rather than to the climate change focal area. 17. All Annex II Parties reported on some activities implemented through bilateral, regional or multilateral channels. It was not possible to aggregate the reported resource flows owing to lack of comparable data. Much effort was reported on capacity building, especially as regards country studies and inventories. With regard to adaptation and vulnerability assessment, most of the activities could be characterized as preparatory studies. 18. The discussion on technology transfer centred on approaches and mechanisms for transfer with limited discussion of specific activities. About half of the communications also reported on bilateral and multilateral assistance to countries with economies in transition. Other commitments and issues 19. All but one communication discussed vulnerability to, and the expected impacts of, climate change. Coastal zone impacts, including sealevel rise, and impacts on the agricultural sector were frequently mentioned. All Parties but one included discussion of adaptation measures and five indicated they were developing or implementing such measures. 20. All communications provided information on research and systematic observation activities. Similarly, all communications discussed education programmes and training related to climate change as well as public participation in responding to climate change. 21. The provisions of Article 4.6 were mentioned by one Party but without making a specific request at this time. Seven Parties discussed joint implementation. |