On the other side of the coin, of course, is how many of these people are going to be workers. How many persons will be knocking on the door and saying, "I want a job." Well, here again, the overall number is very impressive. In absolute terms, the labor force will go up from about 7312 million to about 87 million, or a net increase of 1312 million workers in the 1960's. That's the biggest 10-year jump in the American labor force in our history. And as you can see, the relative increase, at 20 percent, is significantly higher than the percentage increase in the population. In other words, we are going to get a much bigger push in the labor force than even in the population, yet the population is really going to be way up.

Now, this next chart is a very important one because it sets the stage for one of the critical challenges and one of the critical promises, if you will, of the 1960's. Because, big as the story is in terms of the global increase in population and in the overall labor force, the really big story lies not so much in the global figures of how many, but in where are they going to come from. Now, if you take a look at the

very first column, there's a real big increase that we've already been suggesting in the number of young workers under 25-almost 612 million more, a 46-percent increase in that age group alone. Turning to the other end of the age scale, an increase of 512 million is expected in workers 45 years of age and over, a 20-percent increase. And so you see, population is going up, labor force is going up, different age groups are going up-but in the middle of all of these increases, there is one critical age group which is literally going down, both in terms of numbers and in percentages. It is the age group 35 to 44. Most of these folks, of course, were born during the 1930's when our birth rates were very low.

CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF WORKERS IN EACH AGE GROUP 1950 TO 1960 AND 1960 TO 1970

AGE GROUP

UNDER 25

25 - 34

45 AND OVER blo

Now, this underlines a very, very important point for us. The manpower posture of a country, the United States as well as many other countries abroad, changes from time to time, and the decade we're going into now-the 1960's-is quite different from the 1950's in terms of the kinds of workers who are going to be available. Look first at the upper set of bars which shows what happened to changes in the number of workers between 1950 and 1960, and then from the lower bars see the expected changes from 1960 to 1970. The decade we have just completed, in a sense, was easy in terms of the number of young people coming up with a very small increase during the decade. Look at the contrast in these next 10 years. The number of new young workers during the 1960's is expected to be about 13 times as much as during the 1950's. If you want, in a few simple words and a couple of bars, the reason why we call this a challenge, this may be it, right here. And, as for the age group we just pointed to a second ago (35 to 44 years), the one which is actually going to go down in the 1960's, look at the contrast with the decade before. So, our actual manpower posture, in terms of who we are going to have around, to do what is needed is going to be altered very, very significantly, during the current decade.

And, of course, no description of the manpower situation, past, present, or future can be made without reference to the women. As we look at the history of the United States, we find that today the proportion of the population which works in this country is just about the same as it was at the turn of the century. Roughly, the same proportion of the population is in the labor force now as it was 60 years ago. But, the big story really is, of course, that this is a compound of a number of important changes. The dramatic decline in labor market participation among the young people, the equally dramatic decline in labor market participation among the older people, all were counterbalanced by the women, whose labor market participation rates have increased to such an extent that they have kept the total percent in the labor force the same. Well, here's the story for the women. You will note that aside from the very young and the very old among the women, at least two out of every five women in each of the other age groups is going to be in the labor force. By 1970, we will have about 30 million women in the labor force, 25 percent more than in 1960.

Well, that's the supply side. We have presented a few figures on the total population and the distribution of the manpower resources we have available to us. Let's turn briefly now to see what the situation is on the demand side. From the industrial point of view, one of the most significant stories is what happened just a few years ago in the United States, when for the first time in our history, around 1950 it was, these two lines crossed. We now actually have more persons employed in the production of services than we have in the production of all the goods we need in this country. We actually have more people teaching, working for the Government (local, State, National), financing, buying, and selling than we have building everything that we need, taking everything out of the ground in agriculture and mining, and including everybody in manufacturing as well. This has been a really historic change.

Now, if you want to look ahead to the 1960's and ask where the growth areas are going to be in terms of industries, this is the picture. If you remember that there is going to be a 20-percent rise in total employment, the estimates indicate that there are two sectors which are really going to be moving ahead at a much faster rate than that. That's (1) construction, and (2) flinance, and real estate. Growth will also occur at a faster than average rate in (1) trade, (2) Government, and (3) all the rest of the services. And where you get a smaller increase and this is very, very important in terms of job opportunities-is in (1) manufacturing, (2) transportation and public utilities, and (3) mining, which has had a long-term decline. Our friends in agriculture, are actually on the other side of the board completely. We expect a continuing decline in this industry. We'll say more about that later on.