SOURCE: Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952 and AGING AMERICA 1984, Senate Special Committee on Aging and the American Association of Retired Persons Life expectancy at age 85 has increased 24 percent since 1960 and is projected to increase another 44 percent by 2040.3 Between 1984 and 2050, the population aged 85 and over is expected to jump from about 1 percent to over 5 percent of the total population and from 9 percent to 24 percent of the 65-plus population. More people are also surviving into their 10th and 11th decades. The 1980 census counted 163,000 persons 95-plus compared to 45,000 when the census was taken in 1960. And, in the 1980's, 210 Americans are celebrating their 100th birthday every week. Because of the increase in the very old population it is increasingly likely that older persons will themselves have a surviving parent. Four and five generation families are becoming more common. D. AGING OF THE ELDERLY POPULATION THE ELDERLY POPULATION IS GROWING OLDER With increases in the number of people surviving into the upper age ranges, the elderly population is growing older. In 1980, the young old (age 65 to 74) outnumbered the oldest old (age 75 or older) by three to two. By the turn of the century, half of the elderly population are expected to be age 65 to 74 and half will be age 75 or older (table 1-2 and chart 1-6). 3 Soldo and Manton, The Graying of America: Demographic Challenges for Socioeconomic Planning. SOURCE: U. S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, E. RACE AND ETHNICITY THE NONWHITE POPULATION HAS A SMALLER PROPORTION OF Today, the nonwhite population (black, Hispanic, and other) has a smaller proportion of elderly than the white population (table 13). In 1984, 13 percent of whites but only 8 percent of nonwhites were age 65 and over. The difference is a result of higher fertility and higher mortality below the age of 65 for the nonwhite population than the white population. These proportions are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few decades. However, beginning in the early part of the next century, the proportion of elderly persons is expected to increase at a higher rate for the nonwhite population than for the white population. By 2025, the elderly portion of the nonwhite population is expected to increase by 75 percent compared to a 62-percent increase for the white population. And from 2025 to 2050, the proportion of elderly within the nonwhite population is projected to increase another 29 percent compared to a 10-percent increase for the white population. Gender ELDERLY WHITES DISPROPORTIONATELY OUTNUMBER ELDERLY NONWHITES Whites are disproportionately represented in the elderly population. In 1984, 91 percent of the 65-plus population were white and 9 percent were nonwhite, while in the total population, 85 percent were white and 15 percent were nonwhite (table 1-3). In the next century, that portion of the elderly population that is nonwhite is expected to grow. By 2025, 15 percent of the elderly population is expected to be nonwhite and in 2050 this figure is expected to reach 19 percent. 925. Percents may not add to 100 due to rounding. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the United States, By Age, Sex and Race, 1983 to 2080, Series P-25, No. F. SEX RATIOS OLDER WOMEN OUTNUMBER OLDER MEN Elderly women now outnumber elderly men three to two, a considerable change from 1960 when the ratio of elderly females to elderly males was five to four. The ratio of females to males varies dramatically with age. In the under-20 age group, for instance, the 1980 census found 35.5 million women versus 37 million men. The 20 to 24 year age group was evenly balanced at about 10.7 million each. But, for the 65-plus age group there were 15.2 million women and 10.2 million men. This disparity becomes more marked in the upper age ranges. In 1984, there were 81 men between 65 and 69 years for every 100 women in that same age group. Among those 85 and over, there were only 40 men for every 100 women (chart 1-7). These statistics reflect the fact that, on the average, women live longer than men and, therefore, are more likely to end up living alone. Because of these factors, elderly women average a longer period of retirement than elderly men during which time they must rely on private and public sources of retirement income. CHART 1-7 NUMBER OF MEN PER 100 WOMEN BY ELDERLY AGE GROUP 'SOURCE: U. S. Bureau of the Census. Current Population Reports, Series p-25, No. 952, estimates G. SUPPORT RATIO THE RATIO OF ELDERLY TO WORKING AGE PERSONS IS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY The fact that people are living longer and families are having fewer children is changing the shape of the "elderly support ratio' (the number of 65-plus persons to persons of working age, 18 to 64 years). The average family in the early 1900's had four children; today, the average family has only two children. This factor combined with the fact that average life expectancy has advanced by 26 years since 1900 is resulting in growth in the ratio of elderly persons compared to persons of working age (chart 1-8 and table 14). In 1900, there were about seven elderly persons for every 100 persons of working age; in 1984, this ratio was almost 19 elderly persons per 100 of working age. By 2020, the ratio will rise to about 29 per 100 and is expected to increase rapidly to 38 per 100 by 2050 (chart 1-8 and table 1-4). 1900. 1920. 1940 1960. 1980 1990 2000. 2010 2020. 2030. 2040 2050 SUPPORT RATIO SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses TABLE 1-4.-YOUNG, ELDERLY AND TOTAL SUPPORT RATIOS, 1900-2050 Source; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Census, 1980 and Projections of the Population of the United States by Sex and Race: 1983 to 2050; Series P-25, No. 952. The "support ratio" is important because, in economic terms, the working population can be thought of as supporting nonworking age groups. However, a "support" or dependency ratio is a crude measure since many younger and older persons are in the labor force and not dependent while many persons of labor force age may not be working. Although the total support ratio (young and old combined) is expected to increase in the next century, it has declined substantially since 1900. This would suggest that fewer eco |