Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... unlikely risks of catastrophe ? In the aftermath of the attacks on 9/11 , Vice President Dick Cheney set out what has become known as The One Percent Doc- trine : " We have to deal with this new type of threat in a way we haven't yet ...
... unlikely to treat a small chance of a bad out- come as equivalent to a certainty of a bad outcome . You will focus not just on the nature of the worst case but on the probability that it will come about . Perhaps you will decide to ...
... unlikely event is unworthy of attention . If a risk is perceived to fall below a certain threshold , it might not affect our behavior at all . Our intuitions can lead to both too much and too little concern with low - probability risks ...
Cass R. Sunstein. that might happen , without thinking enough about how unlikely it is . ( Best - case thinking — which is the curse , or blessing , of unrealis- tic optimists — is a related problem . ) When governments impose excessive ...
... present instructive polar cases : The first is peculiarly likely to pro- duce close attention to worst - case scenarios , while the latter is es- pecially unlikely to do so . An understanding of Americans 12 WORST - CASE SCENARIOS.