Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... steps to halt climate change , pointing to the burdens and costs of the regulatory ac- tions that some people believe to be required . Suppose that cli- mate change does , in fact , create a 1 percent risk of catastrophe at the very ...
... step is , of course , to specify the bad outcomes and try to assess their probability . By multiplying outcomes by their proba- bility , we can produce the " expected value " of various courses of action . Sometimes science enables us ...
... not occur , and if we lose lot by trying to prevent it , precautionary steps will not have much appeal . If the worst - case scenario cannot be ruled out , and if it is easy to ensure that it will not occur , we Introduction 9.
... steps to eliminate the risks they face . For advocates of cost - benefit analysis , a particularly thorny ques- tion is how to handle future generations when they are threatened by worst - case scenarios . According to standard practice ...
... steps that it requires . To see the point , imagine if we adopted a universal One Percent Doctrine , forbidding any course of action that had a 1 percent chance of causing significant harm . The likely result would be paralysis ...