Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... sense of security . This problem is compounded by the fact that when people's emotions are engaged , they tend to ignore the question of proba- bility altogether . They focus on the bad outcome or on the worst that might happen ...
... sense that the worst - case scenario may be dismissed or need not be considered at all . This too is a form of probability neglect , because the assumption is that when a situation can sensibly be described as " safe , " there is no ...
... sense of the imaginable outcomes , of their probability , and of the burdens and risks of responding to them , we will often be in a good position to know what to do . When probabilities cannot be assigned to the worst - case 8 WORST ...
... sense to do an extra amount in order to maintain flexibility for the future . Well - being , money , and consequences It is impossible to know how to handle worst - case scenarios without having a sense of the relevant consequences ...
... sense and that others do not . In short , an understanding of the na- ture of the potential outcomes and their likelihood may well make it possible for people to achieve what we might call an " incom- pletely theorized agreement " on ...