Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... response . " 1 For especially horrific outcomes , it is tempting to think that a 1 percent chance should be treated as a certainty . In so suggesting , Vice President Cheney took the same position as many people who are confronting a ...
... response . But consider an obvious objection to this position . A 1 percent chance of a terrible outcome is a lot better than a certainty of a ter- rible outcome . In order to figure out what to do , you should multi- ply the ...
... responses , not sim- ply the scenarios . In the context of national security , an aggressive response to a 1 percent threat may create a new threat , perhaps higher than 1 percent , of producing its own disaster . A preemptive war ...
... responses — not only at the existence , probability , and size of the danger . In this book , I try to make progress on issues of this kind . I have three specific goals . The first is to understand people's responses to worst - case ...
... response . In offering guidance for handling hard problems , I emphasize the goal of increasing social well - being , usually without attempting to specify that controversial idea . ( I use the term " well - being " in- terchangeably ...