Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... probability risks of disaster - emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction . Finally , he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost - benefit analysis , especially when current ...
... probability , high - impact event like this ... if there's a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon , we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response . " 1 For ...
... probability of the outcome by its magnitude . If you face a 1 percent chance of losing $ 10,000 , you should take fewer precau- tions than if you face a 90 percent chance of losing $ 10,000 . Even with losses that do not involve money ...
... probability of harm . The same point holds for governments . For public officials no less than the rest of us , the probability of harm matters a great deal , and it is foolish to attend exclusively to the worst - case scenario ...
... probability as if it were much larger . But on reflection , is this really wise ? One problem is that re- sponses to ... probability ? ) danger that it poses , the attack would likely create a certainty of many deaths , and a ( low ...