Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
Results 1-5 of 87
... Percent Doc- trine : " We have to deal with this new type of threat in a way we haven't yet defined ... With a low - probability , high - impact event like this ... if there's a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping ...
... percent chance of a terrible outcome is a lot better than a certainty of a ter- rible outcome . In order to figure out what to do , you should multi- ply the probability of the outcome by its magnitude . If you face a 1 percent chance ...
... percent chance that it will decrease na- tional security ; a 99 percent chance that a reform of the health care system will improve both health and the economy , and a 1 percent chance that reform will significantly increase ...
... percent threat may create a new threat , perhaps higher than 1 percent , of producing its own disaster . A preemptive war , designed to eliminate a small risk of a terrible outcome , might create larger risks of a different but also ...
... percent but below 5 percent ; climatologists might conclude that the proba- bility of catastrophic climate change is above 1 percent but below 5 percent . With such information in hand , we are in a position to es- tablish the magnitude ...