Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... people's responses to worst - case scenarios and in particular their susceptibility to two opposite problems : excessive overreaction and utter neglect . As we shall see , both problems affect individuals and governments alike . The ...
... people , intuitions rooted in actual experience are a much more powerful motivating force . An important task , for ... people's emotions are engaged , they tend to ignore the question of proba- bility altogether . They focus on the bad ...
... people often be- lieve that they are " safe " in the sense that the worst - case scenario may be dismissed or need not be considered at all . This too is a form of probability neglect , because the assumption is that when a situation ...
... people's " willingness to pay " to avoid risks , includ- ing those risks associated with worst - case scenarios — at least when regulation forces people to pay for the benefits they receive . But it is important to ask whether people ...
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