Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... objection to this position . A 1 percent chance of a terrible outcome is a lot better than a certainty of a ter- rible outcome . In order to figure out what to do , you should multi- ply the probability of the outcome by its magnitude ...
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