Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... increase national security , and a 1 percent chance that it will decrease na- tional security ; a 99 percent chance that a reform of the health care system will improve both health and the economy , and a 1 percent chance that reform ...
... increases in unemploy- ment and hence poverty . If the world devotes resources to climate change , perhaps it will not be able to use those resources to com- bat more serious problems . To take another example : We could easily imagine ...
... increase , rather than decrease , overall dangers to national security . Often people , and nations , take undue precautions against worst- case scenarios simply because they disregard the burdens and risks of those precautions . But ...
... increasing social well - being , usually without attempting to specify that controversial idea . ( I use the term " well - being " in- terchangeably with the term " welfare . " ) Often we can make a lot of progress on worst - case ...
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