Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... important to attend to both the probability of harm and the magnitude of harm . If you face a 1 per- cent chance of getting sick , you should act differently from how you would act if you faced a 90 percent chance of getting sick ...
... importance and because it pro- vides a valuable illustration of the underlying principles . But I shall also refer to other sources of very bad worst - case scenarios , includ- ing terrorism , depletion of the ozone layer , genetic ...
... important task , for individuals and institutions alike , is to ensure that error - prone intu- itions do not drive behavior . Overreaction and neglect Intuitive judgments about probability of- ten depend on whether a bad outcome can be ...
... important to look at both sides of the ledger . Risk and uncertainty With these points in mind , we can make a good deal of progress in understanding why , and when , people fail to respond sensibly to worst - case scenarios — and what ...
... important . But in deciding how to respond to worst - case scenarios , monetary equivalents can provide some valu- able discipline . We need to consider distributional questions too . Who is helped and who is hurt by any effort to ...