Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... example : We could easily imagine responses to the AIDS crisis , such as quarantines , that would impose unacceptable burdens on people who are in- fected or who are at risk of becoming infected . 4 WORST - CASE SCENARIOS.
... example , those who urge extensive precautions against the worst cases often disregard the possibility that those very precautions can inflict losses and even create risks of their own . Risks , and bad worst cases , may be on all sides ...
... example , that the proba- bility of a worst - case outbreak of the avian flu is above 0 percent but below 5 percent ; climatologists might conclude that the proba- bility of catastrophic climate change is above 1 percent but below 5 ...
... example , that the risk of a catastrophic climate change is over 1 percent but below 20 percent . Even when probabilities cannot be assigned , a great deal of progress can be made if we ask how much is lost by eliminating the worst ...
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