Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
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... bad outcome . You will focus not just on the nature of the worst case but on the probability that it will come about . Perhaps you will decide to create a special " margin of safety , " or buffer zone , 2 WORST - CASE SCENARIOS.
... create real problems for any one percent doctrine . Ordinarily it is a big mistake to ignore the difference between a 1 percent chance and a certainty . But pause over what it would mean if Al Qaeda were able to acquire nuclear weapons ...
... create a new threat , perhaps higher than 1 percent , of producing its own disaster . A preemptive war , designed to eliminate a small risk of a terrible outcome , might create larger risks of a different but also terrible outcome . If ...
... create risks of their own . Risks , and bad worst cases , may be on all sides . Preemp- tive wars — designed to eliminate threats before they can material- ize , including the 2003 Iraq invasion and Israel's 2006 attack on Hezbollah ...
... created to protect against the worst cases ; but as we shall see , it is important to know what we lose by creating that margin of safety . If a patient , suffering from life - threatening cancer , learns that surgery and che- motherapy ...