Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... consider an obvious objection to this position . A 1 percent chance of a terrible outcome is a lot better than a certainty of a ter- rible outcome . In order to figure out what to do , you should multi- ply the probability of the ...
... consider responding as if it were a certainty . To see the point , imagine a 1 percent chance that New York City , or the entire East Coast , would be completely de- stroyed . Or imagine a 1 percent risk of worldwide calamity from ...
... consider how both individuals and public of- ficials might think more sensibly about situations involving low- probability risks of disaster . Insisting on a wide viewscreen , one that emphasizes the likelihood and magnitude of the ...
... consider distributional questions too . Who is helped and who is hurt by any effort to eliminate worst - case scenar- ios ? The question is especially pressing for the problem of climate change , where people in poor regions , above all ...
... consider people's " willingness to pay " to avoid risks , includ- ing those risks associated with worst - case scenarios — at least when regulation forces people to pay for the benefits they receive . But it is important to ask whether ...