Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon , we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response . " 1 For especially horrific outcomes , it is tempting to think that a 1 percent chance ...
... chance of a terrible outcome is a lot better than a certainty of a ter- rible outcome . In order to figure out what to do , you should multi- ply the probability of the outcome by its magnitude . If you face a 1 percent chance of losing ...
... chance that it will decrease na- tional security ; a 99 percent chance that a reform of the health care system will improve both health and the economy , and a 1 percent chance that reform will significantly increase unemployment ; a 99 ...
... chance of a devastating collision between a large asteroid and our planet . If the worst - case scenario is awful enough , we might well treat a small probability as if it were much larger . But on reflection , is this really wise ? One ...
... chance of causing significant harm . The likely result would be paralysis , because so many courses of action would be forbidden . ( Even doing nothing might be prohib- ited ; human beings who do nothing — assuming we can agree what ...