Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... 2. A Tale of Two Protocols 71 3. Catastrophe 118 4. Irreversibility 176 5. Money 198 6. The Future 244 Conclusion 275 Notes 289 Acknowledgments 329 Index 331 WORST - CASE SCENARIOS INTRODUCTION How do human beings and.
... catastrophic or irreversible harm is enough to require a serious response . But consider an obvious objection to this position . A 1 percent chance of a terrible outcome is a lot better than a certainty of a ter- rible outcome . In ...
... catastrophic outcome , a 1 percent chance may not be so radically different from a much higher chance and it is tempting to consider responding as if it were a certainty . To see the point , imagine a 1 percent chance that New York City ...
Cass R. Sunstein. ing of the polar ice sheets , catastrophic flooding in Florida , New York , Paris , Munich , and ... catastrophe at the very least — and that an aggressive response to climate change , calling for massive changes in ...
... catastrophic climate change is above 1 percent but below 5 percent . With such information in hand , we are in a position to es- tablish the magnitude and likelihood of gains and losses from vari- ous courses of action , including ...