Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2009 M05 15 - 352 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
From inside the book
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... Suppose that you have a health problem of some kind — serious heart disease , a brain tumor , failing eyesight , severe and chronic back pain and your doctor tells you that an operation is 99 per- cent likely to solve the problem and to ...
... Suppose there is a 99 percent chance that a new law will increase national security , and a 1 percent chance that it will decrease na- tional security ; a 99 percent chance that a reform of the health care system will improve both ...
... Suppose that cli- mate change does , in fact , create a 1 percent risk of catastrophe at the very least — and that an aggressive response to climate change , calling for massive changes in energy policy , creates a significant chance of ...
... Suppose that officials or scientists have no idea about the likelihood of a terrible outcome , or that they are able to specify only a wide range — believing , for example , that the risk of a catastrophic climate change is over 1 ...
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