Alternative Energy Future In the year 2010, total energy expenditures would be nearly 19 percent lower in the Alternative Energy Future scenario than in the Base Case. Total energy expenditures, projected to be $736.2 billion (1992 dollars) in the Base Case, would fall to $599.2 billion (1992 dollars) in the Alternative Energy Future scenario. Energy users would save $137.0 billion (1992 dollars) in energy bills as a result. (See Table 1.3) In the Alternative Energy Future scenario, residential energy bills would decline from the Base Case level by $41.2 billion (1992 dollars) or 24 percent in 2010. Commercial sector energy costs in 2010 would decline by 19 percent from the projected Base Case level thereby saving commercial establishments $29.0 billion (1992 dollars) in energy expenditures. The cost of energy purchased by industrial customers compared with the Transportation energy costs are projected to decline by 14 percent from the The Alternative Energy Future scenario would improve the U.S. merchandise trade deficit relative to the Base Case. The primary source of this improvement would be the reduction in the dependence on foreign oil. As noted in subsequent chapters, the Alternative Energy Future scenario not only constrains the growth of petroleum product demand but also projects a smaller decline in domestic production of oil than in the Base Case due to increased drilling activity and improved productivity. • As a result of increased reliance on foreign oil and increases in the world oil price, the Base Case projects that the cost of net oil imports (expressed in constant 1992 dollars) would grow from $45.5 billion in 1991 to $123.3 billion in 2010. The growth represents a 171 percent increase (in real terms) in this major drag on the U.S. economy. The net imports of oil in the Base Case are projected to grow from 6.6 million barrels per day in 1991 to nearly 11.3 million barrels per day in 2010. By comparison, the Alternative Energy Future scenario projects that the net expenditures for crude oil and petroleum products imports would increase by a still alarming 78 percent from $45.5 billion in 1991 to $80.9 billion in 2010 expressed in constant 1992 dollars. Nonetheless, by 2010 the Alternative Energy Future scenario projects a $42.4 billion (1992 dollar) improvement in the Alternative Energy Future petroleum component of the merchandise trade deficit compared with the Base The net imports of oil projected in the Alternative Energy Future scenario In addition, the development of energy conservation and renewable energy Alternative Energy Future The Alternative Energy Future scenario implies a significant restructuring of the nation's energy industry. When the incremental conservation and renewable investment expenditures are combined with the restructured domestic energy production revenues, the total annual revenues received by domestic companies for energy and energy services is reduced but not by as much as consumer energy expenditures. • In the Base Case in 2010, consumers are projected to pay $602.9 billion (1992 dollars) for domestically-produced energy. Total energy bills are projected to be $736.2 billion, which includes $123.3 billion for imported oil and $10 billion for imported natural gas. • In the Alternative Energy Future scenario in 2010, consumers are projected to pay $518.3 billion for domestic energy. But in order to achieve the conservation improvements embedded in the scenario, consumers are projected to invest nearly $43 billion on incremental conservation and renewable technologies in 2010. • As a result, the total revenue received by domestic energy producers, including producers of "conservation energy" and renewable energy, is projected to be $551.4 billion. This represents a decline of $51.5 billion or less than 9 percent of the domestic energy industry revenues projected in the Base Case. Because of the labor-intensive nature of energy conservation and renewable energy, total employment in energy production and service industries in the United States may actually increase. • Total energy sector employment in the Alternative Energy Future scenario is projected to increase by more than 82,000 jobs in 2000. Domestic natural gas and oil production jobs are projected to increase by over 15,000 jobs above Base Case levels. Coal production jobs are projected to decline by 24,000 compared with the Over 90,000 new jobs in the conservation and renewable energy sector are projected to be created. By 2010, the rate of job growth is projected to accelerate. The Alternative Energy Future scenario projects a net increase of more than 175,000 jobs in the energy sector above the Base Case level. Alternative Energy Future Natural gas and oil production employment is projected to increase by more than 25,000 jobs. Coal production employment would continue to decline, losing more than 44,000 jobs compared with the Base Case. Energy conservation services and renewable energy are projected to become major employers in the U.S. economy by 2010, with more than 190,000 jobs created above the Base Case levels. |