These hypotheses call for a review of the data in Table 11. In this array, according to the basis given below the table, the projections of primary and secondary productions and regional demand are shown for Latin America, India, Asia, and Africa. Accordingly, there would be little change in the export of Al from South America, 2000 to 2012 about 1200 ±200 Kt Al/year. From India, Asia and Africa, it is conjectured that there would be a decline from 2200 Kt excess in 2000 to only 1160 Kt in 2012.

A large unknown is Russia and Eastern Europe. Although the primary capacity therein is 4300 Kt Al, the estimates of current utilization range from 46% to 88%. Using the data on annual consumption of primary Al per capita from Reynolds Metals Company Annual Report," Russia, with 280 million people, presently has a domestic consumption of 900 Kt leaving 450 to 1750 Kt for export but the internal consumption is improving.

Estimates of the world production-demand balance between primary aluminum supply and aluminum products for the year 2000 would resemble the following:

The shortfall of 7855 Kt can be compared with the sum of the projected secondary Al from Tables 9, 10, and 11, which total 8565 Kt. Hence, without either increased dedication to recycling or the more capital and energy intensive alternative of greenfield smelters in preferred locations, e.g., developing nations with excess hydropower or inexpensive fossil fuel power, the world aluminum industry will be in delicate balance.

8. Reclamation of Aluminum

The process of reclaiming aluminum involves: collection, shredding, classifying (e.g., by density for contaminated or heavier/lighter materials from shredded vehicles), deoiling or delacquering (by controlled thermal treatment), melting, coalescing, alloy adjustment, and casting. When it comes to the "mass balance", secondary aluminum cannot be continuously recycled. To preserve the mass balance, melting losses have to be compensated even at a nominal "100% recycle". This amounts to about 4.5% primary aluminum.

On an energy basis then, the electric power equivalent attributable to the proportion of primary Al and the electric consumers in the equipment, the thermal energy for pretreatment and melting (natural gas) and the transportation (distillate) by truck and rail in gathering the dispersed material to a focal reclamation plant have to be tracked. Derivations of the cost components of energy in the conversion are given in Table 12 & 13. The price of electric power has been taken as that in the Scenarios One and Two without discounting it for the 46% relevant to large contracts for smelters. This will skew the numbers slightly high because a significant portion of the electrical energy (53%) is intrinsic to the 4% primary Al makeup essential to the mass balance.

For the USA, the fuel adders are about $20/tAl every 5 years over the initial $66 or 30% until 2010. This fuel cost, $99 in 2000, is already 50% higher than the USA, and escalates only about $10/t Al for OECD-Europe. With the high fuel prices ascribed to Japan, the fuel adders are $23 every 5 years over a base of $246/tAl in 2000.

These energy components for 2000, range from $66 USA, to $99 OECD-Europe and $246 for Japan. A comparison by region and ratio is as follows with "USA 2000" as base: