1.2.1 Some Fundamentals Regarding Greenhouse Gases and Tropospheric Aerosols (see SAR WGI for 8 1.2.2 Stabilization of CO2 Concentrations (see SAR WGI for more details) 8 1.2.3 Taking the Climatic Effects of Other Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols into Account: the Concept of 1.2.4 1.2.5 The Global Temperature and Sea Level Implications of Stabilizing Greenhouse Gases 8 2.1 2.2 Emission Consequences of Stabilization 2.2.1.2 Emissions Implications of Stabilization of CO2 Concentrations 2. Geophysical Implications Associated with Greenhouse Gas Stabilization General Principles of Stabilization: Stabilization of Carbon Dioxide and Other Gases Description of Concentration Profiles, Other Trace Gas Scenarios and Computation of Equivalent CO2 2.2.1.1 Concentration Profiles Leading to Stabilization 13 13 13 13 13 13 16 16 18 Temperature and Sea Level Consequences of Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations Implications of Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases for Temperature and Sea Level 3. Impacts and Mitigation Costs Associated with Stabilizing Greenhouse Gases Impacts Associated with Different Emissions Trajectories 19 21 23 23 24 29 29 29 29 30 31 Mitigation Costs of Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations Economic Considerations Associated with Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations 32 33 3.2.1.1 The Amount of Carbon to be Removed 3.2.1.2 The Stabilization Target 33 33 1 Temperature and Sea Level Consequences of Stablilization of CO2 Concentrations from 1990 to 2300 2 Glossary of Terms 3 Acronyms and Abbreviations 4 Units 5 Lead Authors' Affiliations 6 List of IPCC Outputs Preface This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper on "Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Biological and Socio-economic Implications" is the third paper in the IPCC Technical Paper series and was produced in response to a request made by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN/FCCC). Technical Papers are initiated either at the request of the bodies of the COP, and agreed by the IPCC Bureau, or as decided by the IPCC. They are based on the material already in IPCC Assessment Reports and Special Reports and are written by Lead Authors chosen for the purpose. They undergo a simultaneous expert and government review, during which comments on this paper were received from 93 reviewers from 27 countries, followed by a final government review. The Bureau of the IPCC acts in the capacity of an editorial board to ensure that review comments have been adequately addressed by the Lead Authors in the finalization of the Technical Paper. The Bureau met in its Twelfth Session (Geneva, 3-5 February 1997) and considered the major comments received during the final government review. In the light of its observations and requests, the Lead Authors finalized the Technical Paper. The Bureau was satisfied that the agreed Procedures had been followed and authorized the release of the Paper to the SBSTA and thereafter publicly. We owe a large debt of gratitude to the Lead Authors who gave of their time very generously and who completed the Paper at short notice and according to schedule. We thank the Cochairmen of Working Group I of the IPCC, John Houghton and Gylvan Meira Filho who oversaw the effort, the staff of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office graphics studio who prepared the figures for publication, Christy Tidd who assisted the convening Lead Author in the preparation of the paper and particularly David Griggs, Kathy Maskell and Anne Murrill from the IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, for their insistence on adhering to quality and timeliness. B. Bolin Chairman of the IPCC N. Sundararaman Secretary of the IPCC Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse This paper was prepared under the auspices of IPCC Working Group I. Lead Authors: David Schimel, Michael Grubb, Fortunat Joos, Robert Kaufmann, Richard Moss, Wandera Ogana, Richard Richels, Tom Wigley Contributors: Regina Cannon, James Edmonds, Erik Haites, Danny Harvey, Atul Jain, Rik Leemans, Kathleen Miller, Robert Parkin, Elizabeth Sulzman, Richard van Tol, Jan de Wolde Modellers: Michele Bruno, Fortunat Joos, Tom Wigley |