28 Table 6 (continued) Technologies. Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change Technical Options Administrative, Institutional and Political Considerations Administrative/ Political Factors -Haulage industry might oppose tax changes Administrative/ Institutional Factors -Supported by alternative fuel producers -May require new safety and technical standards - International cooperation can help Political Factors Administrative/ Institutional Factors -Local decision-making processes important -Cooperation between different levels of govemment and different policy interests important -International cooperation helpful Political Factors -Road construction industry likely to oppose Administrative/ Institutional Factors -Local/independent initiatives need encouragement - International cooperation helpful Political Factors --Supported by industry •Based on a fuel own-price elasticity of −0.2. Oum et al. (1990) give a wide range of freight own-price elasticities, depending on commodity. Technologies. Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change Table 7: Selected examples of measures to mitigate GHG emissions from aircraft. 29 30 Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change should be tax-exempt (SAR II, 21.4.5.2), but does not preclude "charges" for enviromental purposes. Some airports have landing fees related to aircraft noise levels, and environmental charges could extend to cover aircraft GHG emissions (e.g., through a fuel surcharge). International cooperation, at least at a regional level, could discourage airlines from selecting airports for refueling or as long-haul bubs on the basis of relative fuel prices. In the long term, substantial reductions in CO, and NO, emissions from aircraft may depend on RD&D along with market incentives to develop and introduce technologies and practices with lower energy intensity (SAR II, 21.3.1.3) and fuels based on renewable sources (SAR II, 21.3.3.3). At present, there are substantial institutional and technical barriers, including safety concerns, to the introduction of such technologies. In 1990, the global industrial sector!2 directly consumed an estimated 91 EJ of end-use energy (including biomass) to produce $6.7 x 1012 of added economic value, which resulted in emissions of an estimated 1.80 Gt C. When industrial uses of electricity are added, primary energy attributable to the industrial sector was 161 EJ and 2.8 Gt C, or 47% of global CO, releases (SAR II, 20.1; Tables Al-A4). In addition to energyrelated GHG emissions, the industrial sector is responsible for a number of process-related GHG emissions, although estimates vary in their reliability. Industrial process-related gases include the following (SAR II, 20.2.2): OECD Annex I countries, total GHG emissions from the developing world could grow more slowly than projected in the IPCC IS92 scenarios. Figure 2 shows industrial sector CO2 emissions relative to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), illustrating that, for some countries, industrial sector emissions have fallen or remain constant even with substantial economic growth as a result of energy-intensity improvements, decarbonization of energy, or industrial structural changes. N2O from nitric acid and adipic acid (nylon) production; 4.2.1 Introducing New Technologies and Processes Although the efficiency of industrial processes has increased greatly during the past two decades, energy-efficiency improvements remain the major opportunity for reducing CO2 emissions. The greatest potential lies in Annex I countries with economies in transition and non-Annex I countries, where industrial energy intensity (either as EJ/ton of product or EJ/economic value) is typically two to four times greater than in OECD Annex I countries. Even so, many opportunities remain for additional gains in OECD Annex I countries. For example, the most efficient industrial processes today utilize three or four times the thermodynamic energy requirement for processes in the chemical and primary metals industry (SAR II, 20.3). The greatest gains in efficiency for OECD Annex I countries have occurred in chemicals, steel, aluminum, paper and petroleum refining, suggesting that it should be relatively easy to achieve even larger gains in these industries in non-Annex I and transitional economies. The industrial sector typically represents 25-30% of total During the first half of the 1990s, industrial sector carbon emissions from the European Union and the United States remained below their peak levels of 10-15 years earlier, while Japan's emissions remained relatively constant. The CO2 emissions of the industrial sector of non-Annex I countries continue to grow as the sector expands, even though energy intensity is dropping in some countries such as China. If energyintensity improvements continue in non-Annex I countries, and if decarbonization of energy use follows the pattern of Fuel Switching Switching to less carbon-intensive industrial fuels such as natural gas can reduce GHG emissions in a cost-effective manner, and such transitions are already underway in many regions. "This section is based on SAR II, Chapter 20, Industry (Lead Authors: T. Kashiwagi, J. Bruggink, P.-N. Giraud, P. Khanna and 12In the IS92 scenarios, hence in this paper, the global industrial sector Figure 2: Fossil fuel CO, development path for the industrial manufacturing sectors of the United States of America, the 15 nations that now comprise the European Union (except the former East Germany), Japan, China, India and the former Soviet Union (USSR). The industrial sector is as defined by OECD. plus CO, associated with refineries and the fraction of electricity that is used by industry (SAR II, 20.2.3. Figure 20-1). The manufacturing sector is a subsector of all industrial activities described in this paper. However, care must be exercised to ensure that increased emissions from natural gas leakage do not offset these gains. The efficient use of biomass in steam and gas turbine cogeneration systems also can contribute to emissions reductions, as has been demonstrated in the pulp and paper, forest products and some agricultural industries (such as sugar cane) (SAR II, 20.4). 4.2.3 Cogeneration and Thermal Cascading Increasing industrial cogeneration and thermal cascading of waste heat have significant GHG reduction potential for fossil and biofuels. In many cases, combined heat and power or thermal cascading is economically cost-effective, as has been demonstrated in several Annex I countries. For example, coal-intensive industry has the potential to reduce its CO, emissions by half, without switching fuels, through cogeneration. Thermal cascading, which involves the sequential capture and reuse of lower temperature heat for appropriate purposes. requires an industrial ecology approach that links several industrial processes and space and water conditioning needs, and may require inter-company cooperation and joint capital investment to realize the greatest gains (SAR II, 20.4). Replacing materials associated with high GHG emissions with alternatives that perform the same function can have significant benefits. For example, cement produces 0.34 t C per ton of cement (60% from energy used in production and 40% as a process gas). Shifting away from coal to natural gas or oil would lower the energy-related CO, emissions for cement production, and additional CO, reductions from other techniques (e.g., the fly-ash substitution and the use of waste fuels) are possible. Shifting to other construction materials could yield even greater improvements. A concrete floor has 21 times the embedded energy of a comparable wooden one, and generates CO, emissions in the calcination process as well. Denser materials also extract a GHG penalty when they are transported. The use of plants as a source of chemical feedstock can also reduce CO, emissions. Many large wood-products companies already produce chemicals in association with their primary timber or pulp and paper production. In India, a major effort to develop a "phytochemical" feedstock base has been underway. Lightweight packaging, for example, will cause lower transport-related emissions than heavier materials. Material substitution is not always straightforward, however, and depends on identifying substitutes with the qualities needed to critical specifications (SAR II, 20.3.4). Industrial feedstocks account for an estimated 16% of industrial Material Recycling When goods are made of materials whose manufacture consumes a considerable amount of energy, the recycling and |