SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS: THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE observed through traditional disciplinary research. They are used to explore possible states of human and natural systems, analyze key questions related to policy formulation and help set research priorities. Integration helps coordinate assumptions from different disciplines and allows feedbacks and interactions absent from individual disciplines to be analyzed. However, the results of such analyses are no better than the information drawn from the underlying economic, atmospheric and biological sciences. Integrated assessment models are limited both by the underlying knowledge base upon which they draw and by the relatively limited experiential base. Most current integrated assessment models do not reflect the specific social and economic dynamics of the developing and transition economies well; for example, none of the existing models addresses most market imperfections, institutional barriers, or the operation of the informal sector in these countries. This can lead to biases in global assessments when mitigation options and impacts on developing or transition economies are valued as if their economies operated like those in the developed countries. While relatively new, integrated assessment models of climate change have evolved rapidly. Integrated assessment models tend to fall into two categories: policy evaluation and policy optimization models. Policy evaluation models are rich in physical detail and have been used to analyze the potential for deforestation as a consequence of interactions between demographics, agricultural productivity and economic growth, and the relationship between climate change and the extent of potentially malarial regions. Policy optimization models optimize over key variables (e.g., emission rates, carbon taxes) to achieve formulated policy goals (e.g., cost minimization or welfare optimization). Governments may have different sets of criteria for assessing international as well as domestic greenhouse policy instruments. Among these criteria are efficiency and cost-effectiveness, effectiveness in achieving stated environmental targets, distributional (including intergenerational) equity, flexibility in the face of new knowledge, understandability to the general public, and consistency with national priorities, policies, institutions and traditions. The choice of instruments may also partly reflect a desire on the part of governments to achieve other objectives, such as sustainable economic development, meeting social development goals and fiscal targets, or influencing pollution levels that are indirectly related to greenhouse gas emissions. A further concern of governments may lie with the effect of policies on competitiveness. The world economy and indeed some individual national economies suffer from a number of price distortions which increase greenhouse gas emissions, such as some agricultural and fuel subsidies and distortions in transport pricing. A number of studies of this issue indicate that global emission reductions of 4-18%, together with increases in real incomes, are possible from phasing out fuel subsidies. For the most part, reducing such distortions could lower emissions and increase economic efficiency. However, subsidies are often introduced and price distortions maintained for social and distributional reasons, and they may be difficult to remove. Policy instruments may be identified at two different levels: those that might be used by a group of countries and those that might be used by individual nations unilaterally or to achieve compliance with a multilateral agreement. A group13 of countries may choose from policy measures and instruments including encouragement of voluntary actions and further research, tradable quotas, joint implementation (specifically activities implemented jointly under the pilot phase14), harmonized domestic carbon taxes, international carbon taxes, nontradable quotas and various international standards. If the group did not include all major greenhouse gas emitters, then there might be a tendency for fossil fuel use to increase in countries not participating in this group. This outcome might reduce the international compet itiveness of some industries in participating countries as well as the environmental effectiveness of the countries' efforts. At both the international and national levels, the economic literature indicates that instruments that provide economic incentives, such as taxes and tradable quotas/permits, are likely to be more costeffective than other approaches. Uniform standards among groups of countries participating in an international agreement are likely to be difficult to achieve. However, for one group of countries there has been agreement on the application of some uniform standards. At the international level, all of the potentially efficient marketbased instruments could be examined during the course of future negotiations. A tradable quota system has the disadvantage of making the marginal cost of emissions uncertain, while a carbon tax (and related instruments) has the disadvantage of leaving the effect on the level at which emissions are controlled uncertain. The weight given to the importance of reducing these different types of uncertainty would be one crucial factor in further evaluating these alternative instruments. Because of the lack of appropriate scientific knowledge, there would remain a high degree of uncertainty about the results of limiting emissions at specific levels. The adoption of 13 The group could contain only a few, quite a number, or even all countries. 14 See decision 5/CP.1 of the first Conference of the Parties (COP1) to the UNFCCC. CLIMATE CHANGE 1995: IPCC SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT either a tradable quota scheme or international taxes would have implications for the international distribution of wealth. The distributional consequences would be the subject of negotiation. To insure the practicability of such instruments, there is a need for additional studies on the possible design of tradable quotas and harmonized taxes and on the institutional framework in which they might operate. Individual countries that seek to implement mitigation policies can choose from among a large set of potential policies and instruments, including carbon taxes, tradable permits, deposit refund systems (and related instruments) and subsidies, as well as technology standards, performance standards, product bans, direct government investment and voluntary agreements. Public education on the sustainable use of resources could play an important part in modifying consumption patterns and other human behaviour. The choice of measures at the domestic level may reflect objectives other than cost-effectiveness, such as meeting fiscal targets. Revenue from carbon taxes or auctioned tradable permits could be used to replace existing distortionary taxes. The choice of instruments may also reflect other environmental objectives, such as reducing non-greenhouse pollution emissions, or increasing forest cover, or other concerns such as specific impacts on particular regions or communities. APPENDIX: LEAD AUTHORS, AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS DRAFTING TEAM FOR THE IPCC SECOND ASSESSMENT SYNTHESIS OF SCIENTIFIC-TECHNICAL INFORMATION RELEVANT TO INTERPRETING ARTICLE 2 OF THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Bert Bolin (Chairman of the IPCC and Chairman of the Drafting Team); John T. Houghton, UK; Gylvan Meira Filho, Brazil; Robert T. Watson, USA; Marufu C. Zinyowera, Zimbabwe; James Bruce, Canada; Hoesung Lee, Republic of Korea; Bruce Callander, UK; Richard Moss, USA; Erik Haites, Canada; Roberto Acosta Moreno, Cuba; Tariq Banuri, Pakistan; Zhou Dadi, China; Technical summary Bronson Gardner, USA; José Goldemberg, Brazil; Jean-Charles Hourcade, France; Michael Jefferson, UK; Jerry Melillo, USA; Irving Mintzer, USA; Richard Odingo, Kenya; Martin Parry, UK; Martha Perdomo, Venezuela; Cornelia Quennet-Thielen, Germany; Pier Vellinga, Netherlands; Narasimhan Sundararaman (Secretary of the IPCC). IPCC WORKING GROUP I REPORT, 1995 D. Albritton, USA; B. Bolin, Sweden; B. Callander, UK; K. Denman, K. Trenberth, USA Lead authors J. Houghton, UK; G. Meira, Brazil Chapter 2: Radiative forcing of climate change D. Albritton, USA; P. Jonas, UK; M. Prather, USA; D. Schimel, USA; Lead authors D. Alves, Brazil; R. Charlson, USA; R. Derwent, UK; D. Ehhalt, Germany; I. Enting, Australia; Y. Fouquart, France; P. Fraser, Australia; M. Heimann, Germany; I. Isaksen, Norway; F. Joos, Switzerland; M. Lal, India; V. Ramaswamy, USA; D. Raynaud, France; H. Rodhe, Sweden; S. Sadasivan, India; E. Sanhueza, Venezuela; S. Solomon, USA; J. Srinivasan, USA; T. Wigley, USA; D. Wuebbles, USA; X. Zhou, China Contributors F. Alyea, USA; T. Anderson, USA; M. Andreae, Germany; D. Blake, USA; O. Boucher, France; C. Brühl, Germany; J. Butler, USA; D. Cunnold, USA; J. Dignon, USA; E. Dlugokenchy, USA; J. Elkins, USA; I. Fung, Canada; M. Geller, USA; D. Hauglustaine, France; J. Haywood, USA; J. Heintzenberg, Germany; D. Jacob, USA; A. Jain, USA; C. Keeling, USA; S. Khmelevtsov, Russian Federation; J. Lelieveld, The Netherlands; H. Le Treut, France; 1. Levin, Germany; M. Maiss, Germany; G. Marland, USA; S. Marshall, USA; P. Midgley, Germany; B. Miller, USA; J. Mitchell, UK; S. Montzka, USA; H. Nakane, Japan; P. Novelli, USA; B. O'Neill, USA; D. Oram, UK; S. Penkett, UK; J. Penner, USA; S. Prinn, USA; P. Quay, USA; A. Robock, USA; S. Schwart, USA; P. Simmonds, UK; S. Singh, India; A. Slingo, UK; F. Stordal, Norway, Chapter 3: Observed climate variability and change N. Nicholls, Australia Lead authors G. Gruza, Russian Federation; J. Jouzel, France; T. Karl, USA; L. Ogallo, Kenya; D. Parker, UK Contributors J. Angell, USA; S. Anjian, China; P. Arkin, USA; R. Balling Jr, USA; M. Bardin, Russian Federation; R. Barry, USA; W. Bomin, China; R. Bradley, USA; K. Briffa, UK; A. Carleton, USA; D. Cayan, USA; F. Chiew, Australia; J. Christy, USA; J. Church, Australia; E. Cook, USA; T. Crowley, USA; N. Datsenko, Russian Federation; R. Davis, USA; B. Dey, USA; H. Dia, USA; W. Drosdowsky, Australia; M. Duarte, Argentina; J. Duplessy, France; D. Easterling, USA; J. Eischeid, USA; W. Elliott, USA; B. Findlay, Canada; H. Flohn, Germany; C. Folland, UK; R. Franke, Germany, P. Frich, Denmark; D. Gaffen, USA; V. Georgievsky, Russian Federation; T. Ginsburg, Russian Federation; W. Gould, UK; P. Groisman, Russian Federation; D. Gullet, Canada; W. Haeberli, Switzerland; S. Hastenrath, USA; A. Henderson-Sellers, Australia; M. Hoelzle, Switzerland; W. Hogg, Canada; G. Holland, Australia; L. Hopkins, Australia; M. Hulme, UK; N. Ivachtchenko, Russian Federation; P. Jones, UK; R. Kat, USA; B. Kininmonth, Australia; R. Knight, USA; N. Kononova, Russian Federation; L. Korovkina, Russian Federation; G. Kukla, USA; K. Kumar, India; P. Lamb, USA; C. Landsea, USA; S. Levitus, USA; T. Lewis, Canada; H. Lins, USA; J. Lough, Australia; L. Malone, Canada; J. Marengo, Brazil; T. McMahon, Australia; E. Mekis, Canada; A. Meshcherskya, Russian Federation; P. Michaels, USA; S. Nicholson, USA; J. Oerlemans, The Netherlands; G. Ohring, USA; G. Pant, India; N. Plummer, Australia; F. Quinn, USA; E. Ranʼkova, Russian Federation; E.V. Rocheva, Russian Federation; C. Ropelewski, USA; B. Santer, USA; H. Schmidt, Germany, E. Semenyuk, Russian Federation; I. Shiklomanov, Russian Federation; M. Shinoda, Japan; N. Sidorenkov, Russian Federation; I. Soldatova, Russian Federation; D. Sonechkin, Russian Federation; R. Spencer, USA; CLIMATE CHANGE 1995: IPCC SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT N. Speranskaya, Russian Federation; K. Trenberth, USA; C. Tsay, Taiwan; J. Walsh, USA; K. Wang, Canada; N. Ward, Italy; S. Warren, USA; T. Yasunari, Japan; Q. Zu, China Chapter 4: Climate processes Convening lead author R. Dickinson, USA Lead authors V. Meleshko, Russian Federation; D. Randall, USA; E. Sarachik, USA; A. Barros, USA; O. Boucher, France; R. Cess, USA; A. Del Genio, USA; Chapter 5: Climate models - evaluation W. Gates, USA Lead authors G. Boer, Canada; A. Henderson-Sellers, Australia; C. Folland, UK; J. Boyle, USA; R. Cess, USA; T. Chen, Australia; J. Christy, USA; Australia; J. Copeland, USA; P. Cox, UK; A. Cress, Germany; Chapter 7: Changes in sea level D. Warrick, New Zealand C. Le Provost, France; M. Meier, USA; J. Oerlemans, The Netherlands; R. Alley, USA; C. Bentley, USA; R. Bindschadler, USA; R. Braithwaite, Chapter 8: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes Convening lead author B. Santer, USA Lead authors E. Anyamba, USA; T. Barnett, USA; T. Wigley, USA P. Bloomfield, USA; E. Cook, USA; C. Covey, USA; T. Crowley, USA; J. Melillo, USA Lead authors G. Farquhar, Australia; C. Prentice, Sweden; O. Sala, Argentina; E. Schulze; Germany Contributors APPENDIX: LEAD AUTHORS, AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS P. Bartlein; USA, F. Bazzaz; USA, R. Bradshaw, Sweden; J. Clark, USA; Chapter 10: Marine biotic responses to environmental K. Denman, Canada Lead authors E. Hofmann, USA; H. Marchant, Australia Contributors M. Abbott, USA; T. Bates, USA; S. Calvert, Canada; M. Fasham, UK; Chapter 11: Advancing our understanding G. McBean, Canada P. Liss, UK; S. Schneider, USA IPCC WORKING GROUP II REPORT, 1995 Authors/contributors to the summary for policymakers and technical summary R.T. Watson, USA; M.C. Zinyowera, Zimbabwe; R.H. Moss, USA; R. Acosta Moreno, Cuba; S. Adhikary, Nepal; M. Adler, USA; S. Agrawala, India; A. Guillermo Aguilar, Mexico; S. Al-Khouli, Saudi Arabia; B. Allen-Diaz, USA; M. Ando, Japan; R. Andressen, Venezuela; B.W. Ang, Singapore; N. Arnell, UK; A. Arquit-Niederberger, Switzerland; W. Baethgen, Uruguay; B. Bates, Australia; M. Beniston, Switzerland; R. Bierbaum, USA; L. Bijlsma, The Netherlands; M. Boko, Benin; B. Bolin, Sweden; S. Bolton, USA; E. Bravo, Venezuela; S. Brown, USA; P. Bullock, UK; M. Cannell, UK; O. Canziani, Argentina; R. Carcavallo, Argentina; C. Clemente Cerri, Brazil; W. Chandler, USA; F. Cheghe, Kenya; Chunzhen Liu, China; V. Cole, USA; W. Cramer, Germany; R.V. Cruz, Philippines; O. Davidson, Sierra Leone; E. Desa, India; Deying Xu, China; S. Diaz, Argentina; A. Dlugolecki, UK; J. Edmonds, USA; J. Everett, USA; A. Fischlin, Switzerland; B. Fitzharris, New Zealand; D. Fox, USA; J. Friaa, Tunisia; A. Rauja Gacuhi, Kenya; W. Galinski, Poland; H. Gitay, Australia; P. Groffman, USA; A. Grubler, Austria; H. Gruenspecht, USA; S. Hamburg, USA; T. Hoffman, South Africa; J.I. Holten, Norway; H. Ishitani, Japan; V. Ittekkot, Germany; T. Johansson, Sweden; Z. Kaczmarek, Poland; T. Kashiwagi, Japan; M. Kirschbaum, Australia; P. Komor, USA; A. Krovnin, Russian Federation; R. Klein, The Netherlands; S. Kulshrestha, India; H. Lang, Switzerland; H. Le Houerou, France; R. Leemans, The Netherlands; M. Levine, USA; Lin Erda, China; D. Lluch-Belda, Mexico; M. MacCracken, USA; J. Magnuson, USA; G. Mailu, Kenya; J. Mworia Maitima, Kenya; G. Marland, USA; K. Maskell, UK; R. McLean, Australia; A. McMichael, Australia/UK; L. Michaelis, France; E. Miles, USA; W. Moomaw, USA; R. Moreira, Brazil; P. Mulholland, USA; N. Nakicenovic, Austria; R. Nicholls, UK; S. Nishioka, Japan; I. Noble, Australia; L. Nurse, Barbados; R. Odongo, Kenya; R. Ohashi, Japan; E. Okemwa, Kenya; M. Oquist, Sweden; M. Parry, UK; M. Perdomo, Venezuela; M. Petit, France; W. Piver, USA; P.S. Ramakrishnan, India; N.H. Ravindranath, India; J. Reilly, USA; A. Riedacker, France; H.-H. Rogner, Canada; J. Sathaye, USA; D. Sauerbeck, Germany; M. Scott, USA; S. Sharma, India; D. Shriner, USA; S.K. Sinha, India; J. Skea, UK; A. Solomon, USA; E. Stakhiv, USA; O. Starosolszky, Hungary; Su Jilan, China; A. Suarez, Cuba; B. Svensson, Sweden; H. Takakura, Japan; M. Taylor, USA; L.Tessier, France; D. Tirpak, USA; Tran Viet Lien, Vietnam; J.-P. Troadec, France; H. Tsukamoto, Japan; I. Tsuzaka, Japan; P. Vellinga, The Netherlands; T. Williams, USA; P. Young, USA; Youyu Xie, China; Zhou Fengqi, China Chapter A: Ecophysiological, ecological, and soil processes in terrestrial ecosystems: a primer on general concepts and relationships Convening lead author M.U.F. Kirschbaum, Australia Lead authors P. Bullock, UK; J.R. Evans, Australia; K. Goulding, UK; P.G. Jarvis, UK; 1.R. Noble, Australia; M. Rounsevell, UK; T.D. Sharkey, USA Contributors M.P. Austin, Australia; P. Brookes, UK; S. Brown, USA; H.K.M. Bugmann, Germany, W.P. Cramer, Germany; S. Diaz, Argentina; H. Gitay, Australia; S.P. Hamburg, USA; J. Harris, UK; J.I. Holten, Norway; P.E. Kriedemann, Australia; H.N. Le Houerou, France; S. Linder, Sweden; RJ. Luxmoore, USA; R.E. McMurtrie, Australia; L.F. Pitelka, USA; D. Powlson, UK; R.J. Raison, Australia; E.B. Rastetter, USA; R. Roetter, Germany; J. Rogasik, Germany; D.R. Sauerbeck, Germany, W. Sombroek, FAO; S.C. van de Geijn, The Netherlands Chapter B: Energy primer N. Nakicenovic, IIASA A. Grübler, IIASA; H. Ishitani, Japan; T. Johansson, Sweden; M.U.F. Kirschbaum, Australia; A. Fischlin, Switzerland Lead authors M.G,R. Cannell, UK; R.V.O. Cruz, Philippines; W. Galinski, Poland; W.P. Cramer, Germany |