PREFACE

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988, in order to: (i) assess available scientific information on climate change, (ii) assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change, and (iii) formulate response strategies. The IPCC First Assessment Report was completed in August 1990 and served as the basis for negotiating the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The IPCC also completed its 1992 Supplement and Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios to assist the Convention process further.

In 1992, the Panel reorganized its Working Groups II and III to assess, respectively, the impacts and response options, and the social and economic aspects of climate change. It committed itself to completing its Second Assessment in 1995, not only updating the information on the same range of topics as in the First Assessment, but also including the new subject area of technical issues related to the socio-economic aspects of climate change. We applaud the IPCC for producing its Second Assessment Report (SAR) as scheduled. We are convinced that the SAR, as the earlier IPCC reports, would become a standard work of reference, widely used by policymakers, scientists and other experts.

As usual in the IPCC, success in producing this report has depended upon the enthusiasm and cooperation of numerous busy scientists/ and other experts worldwide. We are exceedingly pleased to note here the very special efforts made by the IPCC in ensuring the participation of scientists and other experts from the developing and transitional economy countries in its activities, in particular in the writing, reviewing and revising of its reports. The scientists and experts from the developed, developing and transitional economy countries have given of their time very generously, and governments have supported them, in the enormous intellectual and physical effort required, often going substantially beyond reasonable demands of duty. Without such conscientious and professional involvement, the IPCC would be greatly impoverished. We express to all these scientists and experts, and the governments who supported them, our sincere appreciation for their commitment.

We take this opportunity to express our gratitude to the following individuals for nurturing another IPCC report through to a successful completion:

• Prof. Bolin, the Chairman of the IPCC, for his able leadership and skilful guidance of the IPCC;

⚫ the Vice-Chairmen of the IPCC, Prof. Yu. A. Izrael (Russian Federation) and Dr A. Al-Gain (Saudi Arabia);

⚫ the Co-Chairmen of Working Group I, Dr LG. Meira Filho (Brazil) and Sir John Houghton (UK); the Vice-Chairmen of the Working Group, Dr Ding Yihui (China), Dr H. Grassl and later Prof. D. Ehhalt (Germany) and Dr A.B. Diop (Senegal);

the Co-Chairmen of Working Group II, Dr R. T. Watson (USA) and Dr M.C. Zinyowera (Zimbabwe); the Vice-Chairmen of the Working Group, Dr O. Canziani (Argentina), Dr M. Petit (France), Dr S. K. Sharma (India), Mr H. Tsukamoto (Japan), Prof. P. Vellinga (the Netherlands), Dr M. Beniston (Switzerland) Dr A. Hentati and later Dr J. Friaa (Tunisia) and Ing. (Mrs) M. Perdomo (Venezuela); the Co-Chairmen of Working Group III, Dr J.P. Bruce (Canada) and Dr Hoesung Lee (Republic of Korea); the Vice-Chairmen of the Working Group, Prof. R. Odingo (Kenya) and Dr T. Hanisch and later Dr L. Lorentsen (Norway);

the Regional Representatives in the IPCC Bureau, Dr A. Adejokun (Nigeria for Africa), Dr H. Nasrallah (Kuwait for Asia), Dr F. Fajardo Moros (Cuba for North and Central America and the Caribbean), Dr N. Sabogal and later Dr K. Robertson (Colombia for South America), Dr J. Zillman (Australia for Southwest Pacific) and Dr M. Bautista Perez (Spain for Europe);

Dr B. Callander, the Head of the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I and his staff, Ms K. Maskell, Mrs J.A. Lakeman and Mrs F. Mills, and those who provided additional assistance, namely, Dr N. Harris (European Ozone Research Co-ordinating Unit, Cambridge, UK) and Dr A. Kattenberg (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute);

Dr R. H. Moss, the Head of the Technical Support Unit of Working Group II and his staff, interns or volunteers, namely, Mr S. Agarwala, Mr D.J. Dokken, Mr S. Greco, Ms D. Hagag, Ms S. MacCracken, Ms F. Ormond, Ms M. Taylor, Ms A. Tenney and Ms L. Van Wie;

• Dr E. Haites, the Head of the Technical Support Unit of Working Group III and his staff Ms L. Lawson and Ms V. Dreja;

• and Dr N. Sundararaman, the Secretary of the IPCC and his staff in the IPCC Secretariat, the late Mr S. Tewungwa, Mrs R. Bourgeois, Ms C. Ettori and Ms C. Tanikie.

G.O.P. Obasi

Secretary-General

World Meterological Organization

Ms E. Dowdeswell

Executive Director

United Nations Environment Programme

FOREWORD

The IPCC completed its Second Assessment Report (SAR) in December 1995. The SAR consists of four parts:

⚫ the IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change;

⚫ the Report of Working Group I of the IPCC, the Science of Climate Change, with a Summary for Policymakers (SPM);

⚫ the Report of Working Group II of the IPCC, Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change, with SPM;

• the Report of Working Group III of the IPCC, the Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, with SPM.

The IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis and the Summaries for Policymakers of the three Working Groups constitute the Report of the IPCC (1995). They are published in this volume and available in the six UN languages, namely, Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish. The Reports of the Working Groups, with their respective SPMs, are available in English only and each is separately published commercially.

We take this opportunity, because of much misinformation and misunderstanding on the subject, to inform the reader on how the IPCC conducts its assessments.

1. The Panel at the outset decides the content, broken down into chapters, of the report of each of its Working Groups. A writing team of three to six experts (on some rare occasions, more) is constituted for the initial drafting and subsequent revisions of a chapter. Governments and intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations are requested to nominate individuals with appropriate expertise for consideration for inclusion in the writing teams. The publication record of the nominees and other relevant information are also requested. Lists of such individuals are compiled from which the writing team is selected by the Bureau of the Working Group concerned (i.e., the Co-Chairmen and the Vice-Chairmen of the Working Group). The IPCC requires that at least one member of each writing team be from the developing world.

5.

The draft is revised a second time in the light of the reviews received from governments and organizations. It is then sent to governments (and organizations) one month in advance of the session of the Working Group which would consider it. The Working Group approves the SPM line by line and accepts the underlying chapters; the two together constitute the Report of the Working Group. It is not practical for the Working Group to approve its Report which usually runs to two hundred pages or more. The meaning of the term acceptance in this context is that the underlying chapters and the SPM are consistent with each other.

6. When the Working Group approves the SPM, selected members of the writing teams - from the developing as well as the developed worlds — are present and the text of the SPM is revised at the session with their concurrence. Thus, in reality, the Reports of the Working Groups are written and revised by experts and reviewed by other experts.