321. The Census-Share Method of Disaggregation 321.1 Introduction 321.2 Disaggregation Procedure and Sequence 322. The 1970 Census Population-Share Method of 322.1 Worksheet 311-1 3-14 3-14 3-14 3-15 Introduction 3-15 Disaggregation Procedure and Sequence 3-15 Population-Share Worksheet for Disaggregating 3-5 3-ii 6/79 Manual for Developing Local Area Unemployment Statistics 3. The Development of Labor Force Estimates Below the LMA Level Disaggregation techniques are used to obtain current estimates of employment and unemployment for counties within multi-county labor market areas (LMA's) and subareas within counties. Disaggregation involves the proration of the labor market area estimates to subarea jurisdictions. Since these jurisdictions are part of LMA's, independent employment and unemployment estimates cannot be developed, as basic data are not available and estimating procedures are not applicable. Three methods of disaggregation exist. (1) The population-claims method uses current UI claims data by county or place of residence, 1970 Census population data by age group and the most recent population estimates for the area. (2) The Census share method uses 1970 Census data on employment and unemployment. (3) The population share method uses 1970 Census population data. For A hierarchical ranking of disaggregation techniques exists. counties and county equivalents, the population-claims method of disaggregation is used, if the necessary residency-based claims data are available. Lacking the claims data at the county level, the Census share method is used. For places within counties, such as cities, the population-claims method of disaggregation is optional. If this method is not employed, the Census share method is used. If Census data on employed and unemployed in the jurisdiction are not available, then Census population data are used in the population share method. The following table indicates the applicability of procedures based on the area to be disaggregated and published Census data. Outside SMSA, not coterminous Population share Incorporated place of less than 2,500 population Population share [NOTE: If a State Employment Security Agency has access to special tabulations of 1970 Census employment and unemploy ment data, or data on population by age group for smaller geographical areas than are indicated above, the more preferred disaggregation methods--population-claims or Census share--may be available for use.] The starting point for disaggregation is the employment and unemployment estimates prepared for the LMA in accordance with Handbook instructions in Chapter 2 and Chapter 1 directions on the adjustment for additivity and to the CPS. Manual for Developing Local Area Unemployment Statistics 31. The Use of Current Data in Disaggregation Since current employment and unemployment estimates at the sub-LMA level are required to carry out numerous Federal economic and employment and training assistance programs, it is desirable to have methods of disaggregation which reflect current economic conditions in these small areas. Few data series exist for small areas which are more current than the decennial Census. The exceptions are the UI claims series (if appropriately coded and tabulated) and the population estimates prepared by the Bureau of the Census. The series which are used in LAUS disaggregation are UI claims counts by place of residence for the week including the 12th of the month and population estimates prepared annually or biennially which pertain to July 1 of the given year. 311. Manual for Developing Local Area Unemployment Statistics Disaggregating Employment and Unemployment to Counties 311.1 Introduction Estimates of total employment and unemployment for counties within multi-county LMA's are required to satisfy legislative requirements. In the New England, cities and towns within LMA's serve this purpose. Disaggregation of LMA estimates is necessary since both the basic employment data and the unemployment estimate are developed for self-contained LMA's. 311.2 Population-based Employment Disaggregation 311.21 Introduction The Bureau of the Census prepares total population estimates annually for States and selected substate areas. For a given year, provisional population estimates appear in the P-26 Series and interim estimates in the P-25 Series. When the next year's provisional estimates are released in P-26, the previous year is revised. The population-based method utilizes these data. This disaggregation method can only be used in conjunction with the clains-based unemployment disaggregation. From each year's report, county total population estimates (place in New England) are used to disaggregate LMA total employment under the assumptions that the proportion of each county's (flace's) population that is employed (the employment-population ratio) is the same and that it equals that of the labor market area. While these are not realistic assumptions, in simulations these data proved to be a better estimator of current total employment in the period 1971-74 than either labor force or employment proportions from the 1970 Census. Given the time lag in the issuance of these reports, population estimates for the most recent year will not be available at benchmark revision time. Therefore, the most current population estimates, either interim or provisional, should be used to disaggregate the employment estimates for that year and any subsequent years. However, revised population estimates for a given year are to be used to disaggregate employment estimates for that year at benchmark revision time. 311.22 Employment Disaggregation Procedure and Sequence Step 1. From the State's P-25 (or P-26) report, obtain the total population estimates for the labor area and for the counties/places |