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Costs and Savings Compared to Reference Case

Cumulative Present Value (Trillion 1990 Dollars) at 3% Discount

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Attachment to Daniel Lashof's Statement

Statement by Dr. Henry Kendall,
Chairman, Union of Concerned Scientists

on behalf of Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations
at the 5th INC session, New York, February 28th, 1992

Chairman Ripert, Distinguished Delegates:

On behalf of the numerous environmental organizations from all over the world participating in this fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, I thank you for this opportunity to share our views on the situation now confronting you -- and the world -as this session comes to a close.

Time is running out. As the distinguished delegate from Pakistan told you earlier this week, the environmental clock stands at a quarter to midnight. There is an urgent need to bring an effective climate change treaty to the Rio conference in June, not just an empty framework. The success or failure of these negotiations will also set the tone for the many other environmental and development challenges that confront developing and industrial countries alike. Given the high stakes, failure of these talks would be a costly and irresponsible act.

It is no surprise that I am greatly disappointed that, despite more than a year of hard `work, you have yet to reach agreement on the major issues. I am saddened that the main responsibility for this state of affairs belongs to my own country. The refusal of the United States to make a commitment to reduce, or even to stabilize, its huge emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has been the principal roadblock to progress. Yesterday's announcement of a new "action plan" by the U.S. delegation was useful, but we must have a firm U.S. commitment on emissions limits by the time these negotiations resume later this spring.

In early 1990, I transmitted to President Bush an appeal for action to prevent global warming on behalf of some 55 American Nobel Laureates and more than 700 members of the National Academy of Sciences. It said, in part, that "uncertainty is no excuse for complacency. Only by taking action now can we assure that future generations will not be put at risk."

Other industrial countries must also do more, both to increase their commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and to reach agreement within the OECD to stabilize and reduce emissions and to provide financial assistance to developing countries. Industrial nations must not use U.S. intransigence as an excuse for backsliding themselves.

Dr. Bert Bolin's statements to you last week were sharp and to the point, and so I know you are well aware of the broad consensus within the knowledgeable scientific community as to the likely range and consequences of global warming. We scientists are cautious by nature, hesitant to sound the alarm until we are confident of our findings. When a scientist of Dr. Bolin's caliber tells you, on the basis of three years of analysis by several hundred of the world's climate scientists, that "more far-reaching efforts are required than are now being contemplated in order to achieve a major reduction of the rate of carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere," it is significant. Let me add that in my discussions with a number of the world's leading

scientists in recent months, I see an increasing worry on this and other issues.

Dr. Bolin is right: the stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000, which seems to represent the "upper edge of the possible" in these negotiations, is inadequate to meet the threat of global warming. Based on the IPCC analysis, it is our view that reductions in industrial carbon dioxide emissions, of at least 20% by 2000, and 60% or more by 2025, are needed if we are to lower the risk of unacceptable damage to natural ecosystems and humanity. Accordingly, the treaty should require further negotiations on emissions reduction targets for industrial nations at the earliest possible date.

Some wish to view the uncertainties in the climate change predictions as a reason to postpone action. This is imprudent. We must insure against the risk of the expected climate response to greenhouse gas buildup. No military planner would dismiss a potentially grave military threat on the basis that the expectation was somewhat uncertain -- neither should we dismiss such a peacetime threat as we now face.

Others argue that an adequate response to climate change would be damaging to national economies. Much of this comes from those whose interests reflect the world's addiction to fossil fuels. The fact is that increased energy efficiency, and a move to reliance on renewable energy sources, will enhance, not harm, economic prosperity while doing much to slow the steady buildup of greenhouse gases. Numerous studies by government and nongovernmental groups alike have documented the enormous potential for cost-effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. A recent analysis by my own organization, the Union of Concerned Scientists, and several others demonstrates that the United States could cut its energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 25% by 2005, and 70% by 2030, at a net savings of over $2 trillion to U.S. energy consumers! The scope for energy savings and the potential for use of renewable resources varies from country to country, but it is substantial in virtually every nation. The climate treaty you negotiate should aggressively exploit the great potential of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, both for developed and developing countries.

While all countries must help avert the worst of the global warming threat, the primary responsibility lies with the industrial nations of the world. They are the sources of the bulk of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. They have also an obligation to provide financial resources and access to appropriate technologies (including development of indigenous technologies and capacity) so that the developing nations of the world can meet their legitimate development needs without greatly boosting greenhouse gas emissions. This is by no means charity, or a handout, but is a sound investment in a more equitable and environmentally sustainable world for our children and grandchildren. And, I would add, very likely a more peaceable world. Of course, these measures must be accompanied by broader reform of international trade, aid, and lending patterns that in most cases, favor the industrialized countries.

You are meeting in the headquarters of the United Nations. If a nation or group of nations were invading a small country, the Security Council would now be in emergency session, a multinational peacekeeping force would be organized, and the unjustified aggression would be resisted with all the means at the world community's disposal.

The global warming threat demands no less. The greenhouse gas emissions of the rich and powerful nations of the world pose a serious threat to the very survival of many of the world's small island states, along with the well-being of natural ecosystems and human communities over the whole world. Yet because this injury takes place slowly, over years, even decades, and because of the industrialized world's addiction to fossil fuels, no emergency sessions are held, no firm response is organized.

This inactivity must now end. It is unacceptable to the people of the world that these negotiations now teeter at the edge of collapse. Urgent consultations must be held, at the highest levels of government, within and between nations (particularly the OECD nations, whose disunity has brought us to this point), over the next two months. A substantial shift in the U.S. negotiating stance is particularly critical. When these negotiations resume later this spring, it must be with a new spirit of determination and cooperation that will enable agreement to be reached on an effective climate change treaty in time for signature in Rio.

A weak treaty will not do. Neither will postponement beyond Rio of these tough decisions so urgently needed.

I thank you for your attention, and wish you well in your efforts over the weeks ahead. Mr. Chairman, distinguished delegates, we are, all of us, quite literally in your hands.

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