Default rates are based on the students who left their schools and colleges two years prior to the years being analyzed. Default rates have been fairly consistent across the five years we have examined. They have varied within a range of 3 percentage points from a low of 23 to a high of 26 percent. Schools that have high rates in one year tend to have high rates in other years. Those that have low rates in one year tend to have low rates in other years.

In the next section, we examine school characteristics that have been found to have a statistically significant relationship with the four outcomes (graduation, withdrawal, TRP, and default). Multiple regression yields estimates of the independent effect on the outcomes of each school characteristic for which we have a measure while controlling for the effects of all other measured characteristics.

As an introduction to the multiple regression results, we present a two-way cross-tabulation of the relationship of full-time enrollment to the four school outcomes. The results in Figures 7 through 10 show how the outcomes differed among schools in four different size categories in school years 1993 and 1994.

The results for the two school years are nearly identical. Figures 7 and 8 show that as enrollment increased graduation rates decreased and withdrawal rates increased. The differences in these rates across the enrollment categories were very similar in 1993 and 1994. The schools in the lowest enrollment category, 300 or less, had higher TRP rates in both years (Figure 9), but there was little difference among the three other size categories. Default rates tended to be slightly lower in schools in the largest and smallest enrollment categories than those in the middle two categories (Figure 10).

The cross-tabulations in Figures 7-10 control for only one school characteristic. The multiple regression results in the next section can be thought of as very complex cross-tabulations that control for the effect of 36 characteristics while indicating the independent effect of one.

Percent Training Related Placed

less 6004 900 more MET-less 600

900 more

Figure 8. Withdrawal by school enrollment in 1993 and 1994 school years

Number Enrolled 300 301

less 600 900 more

to to
less 600 900 more

Figure 9. Training-related placement by school enrollment in 1993 and 1994 school years

Figure 10. Default rate by school enrollment in 1993 and 1994 school years

Multiple Regression Results

The figures in this section present the school characteristics that have had statistically significant relationships with the outcomes for three or more of the five years for which we have data. The height of the trend lines in the figures reflect the size of the net effects of the characteristics, and these effects can be negative as well as positive. Negative effects are shown by lines that go below the zero point on the vertical axis. No figures are entered on the trend lines for years when a school characteristic did not have a significant relationship with an outcome. A trend line that does not extend the full width of the figure indicates that the characteristic was not significant in the years that are not shown.

The measures of school characteristics shown in the figures are of two kind: categorical and continuous. Categorical variables reflect either or conditions. A school is a main or a branch campus. A school has accreditation by an agency in addition to the Commission or it does not. Categorical variables are interpreted in comparison to the opposite condition.

Continuous variables can have many values. Most of the continuous variables reflect the percentage of students with certain characteristics, such as having received different types of financial aid. These percentages are based on the total enrollment of the individual schools. Continuous variables are interpreted as the rate of change in the outcome measure for a unit change in the measure of a school characteristic. The trend lines for the continuous variables show how much the outcomes change when the school characteristics change 10 units.

Characteristics Related to Graduation

Figure 11 presents six school characteristics that have consistently been found to have major impact upon the graduation rates calculated from the annual total data.

Enrollment. The top two lines in Figure 11 reflect enrollment groupings of 300 or less and 301 to 600. These groupings are categorical variables of a special sort. They are interpreted in comparison to schools in the largest enrollment group-901 or more students. For all five years, schools with enrollments of 300 or less have had graduation rates 8 to 13 percentage points higher than schools with enrollments of 901 or more. Schools with enrollments of 301 to 600 have had graduation rates 5 to 9 percentage points higher than schools with enrollments of 901 or more. Schools with enrollments of 601 to 900, however, did not have significantly higher rates than those in the largest enrollment group.

NOTE: Years without data entries on the trend lines indicate that the characteristics did not have statistically significant net effects on the outcome in the missing years.

Figure 11. Net effect of selected school characteristics on graduation rate

It bears repeating that these estimates of the effects of size of enrollment are independent of the other variables that also influence graduation rates. Stated another way, in 1994 when the effect of other school characteristics, such as the percent of Pell recipients and the average length of programs, were controlled, schools with enrollments of 300 or less had graduation rates that averaged 12 percentage points higher than schools with enrollments of 901 or more.

Main or branch campus. Four of the five school years main campuses had graduation rates 4 percentage points higher than branch campuses. There is no entry on the trend line for 1993 indicating that this characteristic was not statistically significant that year. These findings suggest a combination of factors, such as facilities, equipment, and instruction, are likely to increase the holding power of a main campus in comparison to a branch.

Other accreditation. Each of the five years, about one-sixth of the schools reported they had or were a candidate for accreditation in addition to that from the Commission. Schools that reported such additional accreditation had graduation rates about 3 to 4.5 percentage points higher than schools accredited solely by the Commission. Holding more than one accreditation is a consistent indicator of higher graduation rates.

Percent receiving Pell grants. The financial aid variables indicate the percentage of enrollment at a school that received different types of aid. These variables range from 0 to 100 percent. Across all schools, half of all students received Pell grants. The percentage increased from 1990 to 1992, held steady in 1993, and dropped to its 1990 level in 1994.

The trend line in Figure 11 indicates that for a 10 point increase in the percentage of enrollment that received Pell grants, the percentage of graduates decreased I to almost 2 percentage points.

The results for the Pell variable do not mean that receiving Pell grants make it less likely that students will graduate. Pell grants are available only to those students whose own or family income is below the level defined by the federal government as poverty. High percentage of Pell recipients at a school reflect a high percentage of students from poverty families. Students from such families traditionally are the most difficult to serve in educational settings.

Average program length. The trend in average program length (measured in weeks) has been to longer programs. In 1994, the average length at Commission schools was almost 47 weeks, in comparison to 34 weeks in 1990, a 38 percent increase. When other characteristics are held constant, schools with shorter programs have higher graduation rates than schools with longer programs. For every 10 week increase in program length, graduation rates decrease by about 2 to 3.5 percentage points.

Other characteristics. In addition to the six school characteristics shown in Figure 11, three others had statistically significant relationships with graduation rates three of the five years: percentage of enrollment receiving Stafford loans, percentage receiving Supplemental Loans to Students, and turnover among part-time faculty. They are not shown in the figure because their influence has always been less than a change of 1 percentage point in graduation rate for a 10 point change in the variables.

Characteristics Related to Withdrawal

All students who enroll during a given school year do not graduate or withdraw during that school year. Each of the years for which we have data, about 40 to 45 percent of both full-time and parttime enrollment neither graduated nor withdrew. Because of these continuing students, it was necessary when analyzing the annual total data to establish a definition of graduation that did not penalize schools for continuing students.