CWSA July 27, 1995 Appendix 3: Page 5 of 5 Conference of the Project Atmosphere Middle Atlantic Atmospheric b. Project Weatherscope is a National Weather Service program to develop c. Development of educational weather CD-ROMs duplicates efforts that have already been accomplished by the private sector. F. Provision of a Specialized Value-Added Data System for Specific Industries 2. Purdue University's Meteorology Department has offered to provide G. Provision of Specialized Value-Added Data 1. Production of Ultraviolet Index forecasts by the NWS is a news gathering IV. PROVISION OF EQUIPMENT, CONSULTING AND SUPPORT TO SPECIALIZED WEATHER PROJECTS A. Provision of Meteorological Consulting Services to a Specific Agency 1. NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratory, Air Resources Laboratory-Field B. Meteorological Consulting Services to Industries, Businesses and Agencies Chairman ROTH. Thank you, Mr. Smith. Mr. Norcross? TESTIMONY OF BRYAN NORCROSS, CHIEF METEOROLOGIST, WTVJ-NBC, MIAMI, FL Mr. NORCROSS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good afternoon. I came to be identified with Hurricane Andrew and I am here because of that experience and my experience with the emergency warning system that the National Weather Service currently provides. I want to echo a comment made earlier about my view on the combination of NOAA as it currently exists and the view that the oceanographic role of NOAA and the weather role of NOAA should continue to be together. Anyone who studies current hurricane research knows that we know now there is a definite link between what goes on in the ocean and what goes on in the atmosphere. It is really all one system and it would not be good science, I do not think, to break NOAA up in that fashion. But specifically concerning the downsizing of the National Weather Service and the idea of privatizing many of the services, you have got to look at the whole system as a national weather system. It starts from collecting data from all over the world, and then computerizing it, and processing it, and then eventually analyzing it and sending it out to the end user. It is a complicated system and there is a role in that system for the public and private sectors. But you have to go through the system, I think, item by item and ask yourself what is a good function for Government and what is a good function for private enterprise. I think the bottom line is that if there is no other function for Government, it is the protection of public security, national security and public safety, so any function of the National Weather Service that is clearly in the Government's role has to deal with that area. I think incentive is the hinge point about which you decide what is a good role for Government and what is a good role for private business. If there is a role for profit incentive, then obviously private industry can do that job well. But if the incentive is not that and if a profit incentive conflicts with the individual function you are trying to do, then it is better for the public sector. Now the public warning system is one clear role for the public sector. There should be no profit incentive in how well warnings are dispensed and when they are put out. It should be based on the public welfare. That has to do with hurricanes. That has to do with tornadoes. That has to do with any environmental warning system. That should be within the public sector. As a matter of fact, there are private companies that try and do that. In a couple of hurricanes, Hurricane Gilbert and Iniki specifically, judgments were made by private forecasters different from the National Hurricane Center that resulted in public money being spent unnecessarily and public agitation that was unnecessary because the forecasts were different and the private forecasts turned out to be wrong. On the other hand, you have rampant growth along the coast and our loss of life along the coast has diminished dramatically under the current system. I think it is very clear that the current public-sector warning system works well. The weather satellite system, it is in the national interest. It is in the military interest that we have a satellite system. We would not want to have that compromised by a profit incentive, I do not believe. If we decide, for example, we could save money if we only have one, but if that one fails we do not have anywhere to go, people's lives would be threatened. Clearly, I do not think that is in the public interest to privatize that. The radar system is the same thing. In the bill as proposed, according to National Weather Service estimates, they would have to cut back on the radar coverage from the new Doppler radar system. You have to ask yourself whether you want to allow some part of the country because they are more sparsely populated, or not as wealthy, to have less weather coverage, and less warning, and less state-of-the-art weather information because they do not happen to be near a population center or near a place where private industry can provide as good information. Small television stations do not provide as good a private weather service as large television stations. They do not have the money. Should that be in effect across the country in some fashion? Environmental research, I will not expand on that because I think it is clear that research in general, baseline research, should not be done with a private profit incentive. So where should the line by drawn and what is clearly for the private sector? Or one other way to look at it is, is this a function that can be done by a company A and company B and company C, and if I do not like company A is there a company B to go to? The other part of the equation that fits in here is all this data collec-、 tion. I think it is clear that you want that to be as clean and clear and unified as possible, as opposed to having competing systems of data collection that bring all of it together. You want that to be a part of the public sector. Now what can the private industry do? You would think that what you could do is say, let us have the Government collect all of the data, run the data collection system, be sure it is pure and to the highest standards, and then turn it over to the private sector let them produce forecasts. Let private forecasters tell boaters, tell industry, tell farmers what to do. That would seem to be a good idea, and I think in general it is, except that you can run then into a system of weather haves and have-nots. I do not think that is in the public interest. You want to be sure that people, whether they have a lot of money or not too much money, and they have a boat and they want to go out fishing, do not put themselves in harm's way because they cannot get a good boating forecast, where someone that owns a yacht has the ability to do that. So my proposal would be that you maintain some sort of baseline weather information from the National Weather Service across the country. The National Weather Service should be in the business of collecting the data, and maintaining the standards for the data and the public warning system. But then when you get to the distribution of data, it does not have to be for a specific industry and a specific place and a specific point, but there needs to be from the Federal Government some general weather information so people of all economic levels can function and have access to weather data. I think that must be preserved. There is also I will give you an example from my part of the world in the Florida Keys where a public/private partnership can exist. I will be very brief about this. In the Florida Keys there is a lot of concern because they have downsized the weather office in Key West and they do not feel that they have good marine forecasting coming out of Miami now. I have suggested that maybe what the Government in the Florida Keys needs to do is hire a private weather forecaster to forecast specifically for the Florida Keys for the day to day boating weather because it is good for their econ omy. However, when it comes to providing warnings, safety issues, even in the Florida Keys and everywhere else in the United States, I think that should continue to be a Government function. As I say, if anything is in the purview of the Government it should be national security and public safety. Thank you. [The prepared statement of Mr. Norcross follows:] PREPARED STATEMENT OF BRYAN NORCROSS I'm here to address the budget cuts that would result in a considerable downsizing of the National Weather Service, the functions that would be eliminated, and the idea of privatizing many of the services currently provided by the public sector. First, let's talk about the national weather system. Data is collected from thousands of observation points across the country, and, in coordination with other countries, thousands more locations around the world, data comes from satellites, from radar systems, and other sources. The data is processed and analyzed by the National Weather Service, and then the raw and processed data is distributed to private companies for further distribution and further analysis. This is a simple description of a complicated system, but it is sufficient to discuss the appropriate rolls of the public sector and private enterprise in the system. If there is no other function for government, it is to provide for the national security and the public safety from external forces. The profit incentive inherent in free enterprise is not an appropriate component of the public safety and security components of the national weather system. "Incentive" is the operative word. The following elements of the system logically fall under federal control because a profit incentive is not in the public interest: 1-Public. Public warning system. One system using the highest current technology must be used to provide the best and most accurate emergency weather warning system possible. The incentive must be "greatest public safety benefit". I cannot envision an uncoordinated system of weather information warning pilots of severe weather, or warning long coastlines of hurricanes, or warning the plains of a large tornado outbreak. Competing companies (producing potentially conflicting warnings) operating with profit incentive cannot, intrinsically, serve the public. This has been proven on many occasions, notably in Hurricanes Gilbert and Iniki where evacuations and other public actions were taken because private forecasters raised concerns in conflict with the National Hurricane Center. Those forecast tracks proved wrong, the public was not served, and public funds were spent. On the other hand, in spite of the rampant growth along the coastline, deaths have declined dramatically due to a coordinated, single, federal system with only the public safety as an incentive. First and foremost, public safety cannot be compromised by subjecting the information to a system where competitive and commercial pressures are present. 2-Public. Satellite system. The existence and quality of meteorological satellite data is an issue of both national security and public safety. This data is necessary to support both military activities and is a critical component of the system to warn the public of severe and life-threatening weather. It is clearly in the federal interest to maintain as technologically-advanced and redundant a system as possible. If a satellite would fail without a back-up, public safety could be immediately threat ened, depending on the season and the location, Again, profit motive is not a logical component of this part of the system. 3-Public. Radar system. The companion to the satellite system is the radar system. One without the other is not sufficient. Essentially, satellites look from above, while radars look from below. The same public safety issues exist. Without the radar "eyes" covering the country, severe weather cannot be tracked and predicted. Is it good public policy to only provide a modern warning system in parts of the country where the media or other entities can afford a state-of-the-art radar? Any budget that pulls back from the commitment to cover as much of the country as possible with radar is telling taxpayers that the government is not interested in their safety because they don't live near enough a big city where the government or private industry can afford the latest technology. 4-Public. Environmental research. A fundamental component of any scientific endeavor is research. As more Americans move to the coastlines, the public safety issues caused by hurricanes become ever so much more complex. In our thirst to use our natural resources for the public benefit, how will we understand the effect of a new form of fishing or drilling or mining, without the scientific research necessary to be sure we are not doing more harm than good? Research, by its nature, is best done with the incentive being public good, not profit. So the question is, "Where should the line be drawn, and what is the appropriate criteria for deciding what part of the system should be in the private sector?" There clearly is a place for private enterprise in the world of weather information dissemination to the American public. In the parts of the national weather system where private companies can compete with one another to create, innovate, and add value to the raw data, the public is served and free enterprise has worked. I'll deal specifically with those areas in a moment. The delineating feature and a corollary question that should be asked of each function in the system is, "As a user, if I don't like the job that Company A is doing, either because they cut corners to make money or they lack expertise, is there a Company B to turn to? Can competition work in this part of the system?" If you go through the system and ask those questions, there's no question that parts of the systems must be handled at a federal, non-competitive level. I've mentioned some of those above: public warning, satellites, radar, and research. Additionally, weather forecasting and analysis is a science, and like any science requires specific standards to operate under. The computer rule of "garbage in, garbage out" requires as high a quality of data as possible to produce good forecasts and good warnings. This implies that the data collection should be handled under a unified, coordinated system where the standards are set to meet scientific requirements, not profit requirements Private companies are and can be used in part of the collection system, but the country needs only one center for data accumulation . The same is true for running computer models and analyzing raw data. The kind of super-computers necessary to handle the tremendous number of calculations, as a practical matter, cannot be handled in the private sector. So add to the list of logical federal responsibilities: 5-Public. Data accumulation system. This ensures a coordinated pooling of raw weather data (including that required in treaties with the rest of the world) to support the computer systems necessary to predict the weather and provide the most accurate warnings possible. Now, imagine drawing the line there. The federal system collects the data, computes it, handles weather warnings for aviation, marine, and public interests, and the private sector handles the other day-to-day functions. On the surface it seems like a good idea, but there are some problems. Clearly, it is logical for the private sector to: 1-Private. Distribute weather data. The universe of weather-data users is large enough that Companies A, B, C, etc. can compete for enough clients to make it feasible to provide the service efficiently. The specialized analysis products and forecasts that are generated from that data are more difficult to put in one column or the other, public or private. The difficulty does not come in the ability of private industry to provide specialized weather products. The real question is "To what extent should daily weather information be available only to those who can afford it?" Should we create weather haves and have-nots? In rural areas with only a couple of radio stations operating on a shoestring, should citizens be denied daily weather forecasts? Should the small farmer, small professional fisherman, or retired couple going out for a day on the lake in their small boat be denied a forecast because they can't afford the "specialized" forecast generated by a private company. I think the answer is "no." While the private sector does and should supply sophisticated, value-added, specific products for users and industries with specific 92-690 96-7 |