ABSTRACT The Workshop on Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models, held at the National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland (January 10 11, 1979), was funded by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, D. C. Organized by the Bureau's Operations Research Division, the Workshop was designed to be a forum in which the theoretical and applied state-of-the-art of validation and assessment, with emphasis on energy models, could be presented and discussed. Speakers addressed the following areas: DOE's activities in assessment and validation, taxonomy and structure of assessment and validation, the relationship between model assessment and policy research, the Electrical Power Research Institute's Energy Modeling Forum and projects, independent third-party model assessment, the Texas National Energy Modeling Project, management and improvement of the modeling process, complexity of model evaluation, definitions and structure of model assessment approaches, model access and documentation, assessment of specific models by the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory and other groups, energy and econometric models, and sensitivity analysis. This volume documents the Proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Workshop. Keywords: Assessment; documentation; econometric models; energy modeling forum; energy models; evaluation; mathematical Model Assessment and Validation: Issues, Structures, and Energy Information Administration Program Goals -- George M. Lady....... Model Assessment and the Policy Research Process: Current Practice Assessing the ICF Coal and Electric Utilities Model Neil L. Goldman and James Gruhl.... Developing, Improving, and Assessing the ICF Coal and Electric A Modern Day Snipe Hunt? Conceptual Difficulties An Approach to Independent Model Assessment Reflections on the Model Assessment Process: The Texas National Energy Modeling Project: Midrange Energy Forecasting System Milton L. Holloway. Assessing Ways to Improve the Utility of Large-Scale Models CONTENTS (Cont'd.) Assessment and Selection of Models for Energy and Economic Analysis Edward A. Hudson and Dale W. Jorgenson. Econometric Models and Their Assessment for Policy: Some New Diagnostics Applied to Translog Energy Demand in Manufacturing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using Describing Functions Fred C. Schweppe and James Gruhl.... Validating the Hirst Residential Energy Use/Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System Interface Frank Hopkins and Lewis Rubin.....525 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS Lincoln E. Moses Administrator Energy Information Administration Department of Energy The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has a keen interest in the subject matter of this workshop and a strong reason to be one of its sponsors. These reasons come under several different rubrics. First, there are requirements in the law for EIA to validate its models and increase access to them by interested parties in the public. Second, we hope that from this conference we will gain many clues and indications as to how to improve the quality of some of our energy models. Third, specifically to advance the abilities to assess and validate models will respond to needs, both inside and outside of our organization. Fourth, we trust that the thought that appears in this meeting will advance not only the techniques of assessment and validation but will reach far toward deeper understanding of and ability to improve modeling itself. And, finally, we dare hope that a by-product of the larger technical understandings to be looked for will increase our ability to take a grip on one task which EIA regards as central to its work; that task is to "give useful indications of the uncertainty of each forecast." Thus, the Energy Information Administration is pleased to participate in the organization of the conference and in the publication of the results of the conference and looks forward to benefits from this round, and the possibility of further participation in future such rounds. |