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(B) The President's October Accounting System

2008-2012 Emissions Calculation = (Total emissions of CO2, CH4, N20, HFC,

PFC, SF6 2) - Inet changes of carbon stocks from all U.S. forests) Comparison: How much lower is the Kyoto target than the President's plan?

Recall that the two plans entail different accounting systems for the emissions that
must be within budget, so the budgets of the two commitments (1484 and 1301)
are not directly comparable.

The Kyoto commitment:

(Total emissions of all six gases) - (net changes of carbon stocks from certain
activities ) < 1484

Since the sink accounting system under the Kyoto Protocol is not yet
determined, we must make an assumption about the net changes of carbon
stocks from the activities specified in the treaty. The U.S. has said that the
accounting system for carbon sinks will not increase the emissions
calculation under the Protocol, and may in fact offset our emissions. If we
assume that sinks are zero, that is they neither offset U.S. emissions nor
contribute to them, then the Kyoto commitment is:

(Total emissions of all six gases) - 0 < 1484

President's plan:

(Total emissions of all six gases) - (net changes of carbon stocks from all
U.S. forests) < 1301

The change in carbon stocks from all U.S. forests in 2010 is estimated by
USDA and EPA to be about 227 MMTCE. If that figure is about average for
the budget period, the President's commitment would be equivalent to:

(Total emissions of all six gases) - 227 < 1301, or equivalently.

(Total emissions of all six gases) < 1528 (the total of the budget plus offsets by sinks)

Then the comparison question is: how much lower is 1484 than 1538?

Algebraically, the percentage difference, x, can be expressed: 1484 = (1-x)1538
=> x = 1 - 1484/1538 = .03
=> 1484 is 3% below 1538.

What it accounting for sinks under the Protocol offsets our emissions, as we expect
they may do? Then the total emissions of all six gases can be higher than 1484 by
the amount of carbon sequestered in the eligible land use activities. That makes
the Kyoto Protocol even less than 3% more stringent than the President's plan.
Conclusion: The Kyoto agreement is no more than 3% more stringent than the
Presidents plan.

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U.S. Department of Energy

TELEFAX TRANSMISSION

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ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (EI-80)

1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.

Washington, D.C. 20585
DATE: 1/23198

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PLEASE CALL 202-586-2222 IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE RECEIVING TRANSMISSION.

FROM:

1000 INDEPENDENCE AVE FAX NUMBER: (202) 586-3045

MESSAGE:

Carbon fee tables requested from Andy Rydes

instead of 110. 640

AT 1ONAL OLELI MODELING SYSTEM Table 1. Total Dergy supply and Dlapoole.lon ry

drien LP Year. Unless othenin Nos Supply, Disposition, and prices | 2000 2006 2000 2000 2003 2005 2006 2005 2010 2010 2016. 2010 2015 2016 2015 2015 2036 2025 2026 2020 0 (2_021

2 21 12 0 122

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120.97 40.5 20.35 11.26|41.30 11.41 41.0 40.014.37 44.17 47.77 41.92146.21 46.20 15.42 2.670.69 47.70 48.61 0.as Natural Gas.

124.6 24.6 24.0 24.51126.93 27.00 07.20 2.3412.57 35.6) 10.53 30.56121.32 11.50 32.76 1.90123.00 33.9 30.14 3.75 Coal

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6.36 6.361 5.12 6.13 6.4 6.13 6.0 6.00 0.00 0.00 Rencrable Energy

6.62 6.02 6.0 6.00 7.12 7.1 7.17 7.351 1.03 1.00 1.99 ..07| 7.6. 1.03 0.92 .. .. .. 1.39 3.36 Olber

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Prices (1996 dollars per unit) 1
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Gas Wellhead Price 1$ / Me?)...1 2.13 2.12 2.0 2.111 2.15 2.15 3.19 2.00 2.24 2.3 2.4 2.301 2.92 3.37 3.67 2.soj 2.0 2.54 3.as 2.6
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Aver. Electricity fcents / Mobil 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.51 6.2 6.2 6.) 6.21 6.0 6.2 7.1. 7.91 S.6

6.0 7.61 8.5 3.6 6.7 7.6

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ENEIGI INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

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