The Kyoto Protocol and Its Economic Implications

SINK7TO3.WP

(B) The President's October Accounting System

2008-2012 Emissions Calculation = [Total emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,
PFC, SF6 2] - [net changes of carbon stocks from all U.S. forests]
Comparison: How much lower is the Kyoto target than the President's
plan?

Recall that the two plans entail different accounting systems for the emissions that
must be within budget, so the budgets of the two commitments (1484 and 1301)
are not directly comparable.

The Kyoto commitment:

[Total emissions of all six gases] - [net changes of carbon stocks from certain
activities ] < 1484

Since the sink accounting system under the Kyoto Protocol is not yet
determined, we must make an assumption about the net changes of carbon
stocks from the activities specified in the treaty. The U.S. has said that the
accounting system for carbon sinks will not increase the emissions
calculation under the Protocol, and may in fact offset our emissions. If we
assume that sinks are zero, that is they neither offset U.S. emissions nor
contribute to them, then the Kyoto commitment is:

[Total emissions of all six gases) - 0 < 1484

President's plan:

[Total emissions of all six gases] - [net changes of carbon stocks from all
U.S. forests] < 1301

The change in carbon stocks from all U.S. forests in 2010 is estimated by
USDA and EPA to be about 227 MMTCE. If that figure is about average for
the budget period, the President's commitment would be equivalent to:

[Total emissions of all six gases] - 227 < 1301, or equivalently,
[Total emissions of all six gases] < 1528 (the total of the budget plus
offsets by sinks)

Then the comparison question is: how much lower is 1484 than 1538?

Algebraically, the percentage difference, x, can be expressed: 1484 = (1-x)1538
=> x = 11484/1538 = .03

=> 1484 is 3% below 1538.

What if accounting for sinks under the Protocol offsets our emissions, as we expect
they may do? Then the total emissions of all six gases can be higher than 1484 by
the amount of carbon sequestered in the eligible land use activities. That makes
the Kyoto Protocol even less than 3% more stringent than the President's plan.
Conclusion: The Kyoto agreement is no more than 3% more stringent than the
Presidents plan.

Page 3

PLEASE CALL 202-586-2222 IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE RECEIVING TRANSMISSION.

Dry Natura! Gaa.

Nuclear Power.

Coal...

2000 2005 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2015 2015 2020 2020 2020 2020 (3) (2) (3) (4) 1(3) (3) (4) Le (3) (3) (0) 13)

נג

Crude Oil & Lease Condensate. |13.06 23.06 13.07 13.07|12.33 12.33 12.33 12.26|11.60 11.00 11.77 11.56 11.07 11.05 10.97 10.61/10.33 10.31 10.15 9.76 Natural Gas Plant Liquide. | 2.39 2.36 2.37 2.36 2.63 2.64 2.66 2.56 2.93 2.94 3.02 3.041 3.28 3.13 3.24 3.17 3.30 3.29 3.40 3.25 120.85 20.76 20.75 20.60|22.03 22.90 23.30 22.26/25.30 25.35 26.09 26.19 26.72 26.00 27.84 27.16/20.12 20.09 20.92 27.72 124.33 24.42 24.42 24.21|25.52 25.52 24.99 24.22|26.50 26.33 23.52 19.25|27.64 27.10 23.54 18.96120.37 20.06 24.25 29.43 7.36 7.36 7.36 7.361 6.07 6.87 6.07 6.871 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 5.13 5.12 5.12 5.121 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.02 6.02 4.04 6.431 7.22 7.11 7.17 7.34 7.43 7.42 7.97 8.05 7.86 0.00 0.89 9.06 0.19 0.40 9.32 9.83 1.56 .56 .36 .56 .55 .54 .54 .34 .40 .40 .55 .60 .60 .03 1.01 .92 .09 .98 1.25 1.37 175.36 75.35 75.37 74.99177.04 77.90 77.65 76.04100.79 80.67 79.28 75.04|02.32 02.19 10.63 74.90|03.29 03.29 81.37 75.44

Renewable Energy

Other

Total

19.10 19.19 19.15 19.11/21.98 22.09 22.10 21.91|23.18 23.31 23.16 22.96|24.35 24.65 24.34 24.09|25.40 25.71 25.34 24.97 4.39 4.24 4.27 4.40 5.55 5.51 5.52 5.191 7.56 7.30 7.10 5.62 0.01 0.21 7.60 5.89 9.50 9.02 0.24 6.19 4.21 4.23 4.22 4.21 4.44 4.43 4.52 4.42 4.70 4.72 4.87 4.85 5.06 5.10 3.30 5.20 5.36 5.39 5.74 5.53 1.62 .62 .62 .63 .50 .sa .50 .60 .57 .57 .59 .66.54 .54 .57 .64 .56 .54 .50 .66 20.40 20.31 20.27 20.35|32.55 32.61 32.73 32.12136.01 35.90 35.72 34.08 30.77 38.51 37.89 35.91|40.82 40.67 39.90 37.35

.20

1.73 1.73 1.74 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.72| 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.79 1.06 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.64 1.53 1.59 1.66 .26 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .201 .29 .29 .39 .29 .30 .30 .30 .30 .32 .32 .32 .32 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.41 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.04| 3:53 3.03 3.03 3.031 3.33 3.23 3.23 1.23 4:41 4.41 4.42 4.43| 4.65 4.65 4.66 4.65 4.91 4.84 4.0 4.83 5.29 5.24 8.15 .49 .Q .63 .461 .05 .OL .03 -.071 .24 .39 -.27.31 -.09 .33

8.23 5.20 5.09 5.25 5.22 .00.07 -.00 .00 -.05

Het Imports Petroleum.

130.37 30.38 30.35 38.26141.38 42.41 41.43 40.69/44.37 44.37 43.72 41.92146.21 46.20 45.42 42.87147.69 47.70 46.82 43.85 124.76 24.69 24.60 24.51|26.93 27.00 27.28 26.34|29.57 29.63 30.53 30.56|31.32 31.53 32.76 31.97|33.00 32.99 34.16 32.75 22.13 22.22 22.23 22.01|23.11 23.10 22.63 21.03|23.91 23.73 20.91 16.71 24.07 24.41 20.70 16.20 25.40 25.09 23.20 16.49 7.36 7.36 7.36 7.361 6.87 6.07 6.07 6.87 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 5.12 5.12 5.42 5.121 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 6.02 6.02 6.00 6.04 7.12 7.12 7.17 7.35 7.43 7.43 7.99 0.071 7.00 0.02 0.92 9.06 0.22 0.53 9.35 9.86 .411 .37 .37 .37 .37 .40 .39 .42 .46 .01 .42 .43 .46.43 .43 .45 .49 99.0 99.9 99.9 99.4|105.8 105.9 105.4 103.4112.0 111.9 109.9 104.0/115.0 115.7 113.4 105.0|118.0 118.0 116.1 107.5

.41 .41 .41

Į21.84 21.73 21.69 21.79125.80 25.87 25.89 25.37128.97 20.91 20.56 26.88131.30 31.04 30.12 20.10 ̊33.26′ 33.20 31.99 29.50

Prices (1996 dollars per unit)
Rorld Oil Price (3 per bbl)...119.12 19.11 19.11 19.06 20.25 20.27 20.25 19.76120.60 20.77 20.36 19.17|21.17 21.08 20.15 19.12/21.02 21.81 21.06 19.95
Gas Wellhead Price is / Mef)...] 3.13 2.12 2.13 2.13 2.15 2.15 2.19 2.00 2.26 2.29 2.49 2.361 2.32 3.37 2.67 2.501 2.49 2.56 2.45 2.64
Coal Minemouth Price ($/tan). 17.36 17.44 17.46 17.40|16.00 16.26 16.26 16.1714.87 15.15 15.50 15.82/13.88 14.24 34.63 14.50/13.26 13.50 13.74 14.26
Aver. Electricity (cents/kwh)| 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.51 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.21 6.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 5.6 5.0 6.0 7.61 5.5 5.6 5.7 7.6
newbase, do12198 - Tax, Reference Demand Technology (1), Ree005, do122984 (2). fogo5o.do12290a (3), feelAD, 8013298a (4)
ENERGI INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

Carbon Passione (Lons per person)

2000 2000 2000 2000 12005 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 2010 2015 10 (2) (3) (4) (2) (3) (4) 1032 (2) (3) LOL (3)

נו

2015 2015 2016 12020 2020 2020 2020 (6) TOTE (3) 19

וגן

25.0 25.0

25.0 25.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.0 24.0 24.7 24.3 23.1 24.6 24.5 24.0 22.7 24.3 24.2 23.8 22.2 77.0 76.9 76.9 76.8 78.7 78.7 78.5 78.201.3 80.8 77.8 74.71 84.0 83.3 79.8 75.7 86.3 85.4 02.1 77.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 1.4 12.4 1.4 1.4 3.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.3 3.3 1.3 1.3 2.3 3.3 1.3 2.3 1.3 1201.3 201.8 201.6 199.4/215.6 215.6 212.7 202.4|229.8 228.5 209.1 174.0/247.9 244.5 219.4 179.91366.8 262.9 235.5 190.4 (305.5 306.0 306.8 303.31320.7 320.7 317.6 306.8/337.3 335.4 332.3 273.2|367.9 353.6 324.5 279.6|377.5 373.0 342.6 291.3

12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8] 13.0 12.0 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.4 13.3 12.1 | 49.9 49.9 19.9 49.71 $2.1 52.0 52.0 51.21 $4.1 53.9 53.0 50.0 55.5 35.3 54.2 $1.11 55.6 55.3 54.3 30.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.31 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 [102.1 102.6 102.4 101.1/193.0 192.0 190.3 184.91204.1 202.9 105.1 158.6|216.9 213.8 190.7 160.5|223.9 221.3 196.5 162.9 1247.1 247.6 247.4 245.81260.1 260.1 257.5 251.3|273.5 272.1 253.2 224.31287.7 284.3 260.0 226.51294.4 291.6 265.7 220.3

2.2

103.3 103.2 103.1 102.6 109.6 109.9 109.9 107.9/115.4 116.0 113.4 109.7|118.6 119.5 117.1 110.4/119.3 120.0 117.4 110.6 155.5 155.5 155.5 154.4150.6 150.6 158.7 153.4/166.0 165.3 163.1 153.9/167.2 166.6 164.4 153.3|167.9 166.8 164.4 151.4 | 60.6 60.6 60.6 59.41 62.3 62.3 62.4 57.91 62.7 62.2 57.3 49.3 61.6 61.1 56.5 47.0 60.6 60.1 35.3 44.6 107.5 100.0 197.6 185.61203.0 203.5 201.3 193.2/217.0 217.5 207.2 182.5|220.5 227.0 213.0 104.7|237.4 237.3 221.4 107.0 1506.0 507.2 506.0 502.01533.5 $34.3 532.2 512.5/561.2 561.0 541.2 495.4/575.9 $75.0 852.7 494.51585.3 584.3 $58.5 494.4

2.6

2.5

1502.7 502.0 502.4 502.31552.7 563.3 553.2 $49.61600.6 599.8 689.3 569.5|620.1 622.6 607.4 580.81649.0 646.1 627.0 592.3 12.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 16.5 14.4 14.6 14.3 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.01 10.3 18.3 16.6 10.3) 19.7 19.7 19.9 19.1 .S .3.1 .11 .5 .5 .5 2.4 3.6 1.41 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.11 2.7 2.7 1.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.31 5.9 5.9 5.0 0.7 8.7 8.0 7.21 30.7 10.6 9.5 0.5 12.2 12.1 10.9 9.7 510.2 518.2 528.2 527.71573.6 874.0 574.1 570.21627.9 627.1 615.8 595.01659.4 653.7 637.7 609.71693.6 680.6 660.3 62.6

5.0

1644.7 644.6 644.6 643.41700.1 700.9 703.0 695.1/753.6 753.4 739.6 714.8|784.0 779.3 761.1 726.31085.1 802.9 780.5 736.2 |294.5 294.3 294.5 292.81303.9 303.7 303.7 297.1|318.6 317.2 311.0 296.4|325.0 323.5 316.9 297.41329.3 327.2 320.6 298.6 · 64.2 64.2 64.2 0.01 66.0 66.1 66.2 61.61 66.5 65.9 61.1 53.0 65.5 65.0 60.3 50.0) 64.5 0.9 59.2 40.4 .1.2 .1/ .5 S .5 1.4 1.4 2.4 1.41 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.5 1574.1 575.7 574.9 562.41617.3 617.9 610.1 596.4659.7 657.7 609.4 522.3|704.0 696.7 633.4 $33.6/729.2 733.5 664.1 550.0 1578 1579 1570 1569| 1600 1609 1681 1641 1800 1796 1722 1500 1881 1867 1770 1610 1941 1930 1827 1637

11.2 11.6 11.1 10.61 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.1 4.2 0.2 9.2 6.3 7.6 7.7 9.1 7.81 7.4 0.3 9.3 7.3 60.0 59.1 50.7 57.91 81.0 82.9 87.1 00.4/104.9 107.3 126.1 141.9(123.7 120.2 152.5 161.1/143.6 145.4 168.7 171.1 1502.9 505.1 505.0 500.81526.3 525.7 513.5 497.0|546.7 542.2 474.3 373.41572.7 560.0 471.0 364.7|587.9 579.8 486.4 372.4 1574.1 575.7 574.9 569.4|617.3 617.9 610.1 586.41659.7 657.7 609.4 522.31704.0 696.7 633.4 533.61739.2 733.5 664.3 550.8

1655.9 656.2 655.7 654.1|709.3 710.2 710.5 704.21761.8 761.6 748.6 721.7|791.7 787.0 770.2 734.3j812.9 811.3 789.7 743.5 |354.5 353,4 353.2 350.8|385.7 396.6 390.8 377.5|423.5 424.4 437.1 438.3/448.7 451.7 469.4 458.5j472.8 472.6 489.3 469.7 1567.1 569.3 $69.3 563.9|592.3 591.8 579.7 558.6|613.2 608.1 535.4 426.41638.2 625.7 $32.1 416.5|652.6 683.8 545.5 420.9 .1 .1 .1 .21 .5 .5 .5 .5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 1578 1579 1570 1569 | 2600 1689 1681 1642) 1800 1796 1722 1930 1774 1610 1941 2027 1637

1500 1801 2067

་

newbase do 12198

5.7 5.7 5.7 5.71 5.9 5.9 5.9 - 9 Tax, Reference Depand Technology (1), fec005.4017798a (2) fee050.40172988 (3) fes100.de122990 (4)

5.71

6.0

6.0 5.0

6.0 5.31 6.0

5.7

6.0 5.21 6.0

5.6 5.1

« Previous Continue »

Books

The Kyoto Protocol and Its Economic Implications: Hearing Before ..., Volume 4