TABLE 13.-OPERATIONS OF THE DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUND DURING SELECTED CALENDAR YEARS 1960-73 AND ESTIMATED FUTURE OPERATIONS DURING CALENDAR YEARS 1974-78 UNDER 2 ALTERNATIVE SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS Note: In interpreting the above, reference should be made to the footnotes in table 12. 27 Estimates of benefit payments that are shown in this report, under either alternative, are larger than the estimates prepared at the time P.L. 93-233 was being considered by the Congress. The increased outlays are attributable primarily to the greater-than-expected upward movement in the CPI, with the result that automatic benefit increases assumed herein are larger than were previously estimated. The expected operations and status of the old-age and survivors insurance and disability insurance trust funds combined, during each year 1974-78, under both alternative sets of assumptions, are shown in tables 14 and 15 on a fiscal-year basis and a calendar-year basis, respectively, together with figures on actual experience in earlier years. Expenditures in calendar year 1973, from both trust funds combined, were 9.81 percent of taxable earnings for the year. The estimated percentage throughout most of the next 5 calendar years will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range of 10.07%-10.25% under both alternatives. These percentages, as well as the actual percentages for earlier years, are shown in table 16 for both trust funds combined and for each trust fund separately. Although the assets of the trust funds are estimated to increase in each of the years 1974–78 under alternative I and in each of the years 1974-76 under alternative II, the ratio of assets to annual outgo is estimated to decline each year under both alternatives. By calendar year 1978, the estimated ratio is 0.51 under alternative I and 0.48 under alternative II. The estimated ratio for each of the next 5 calendar years 1974-78, as well as the actual ratio for earlier years, is shown in table 17 for both trust funds combined and for each trust fund separately. TABLE 14.-OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND THE DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS, COMBINED, DURING SELECTED FISCAL YEARS 1960-73 AND ESTIMATED FUTURE OPERATIONS DURING FISCAL YEARS 1974-78 UNDER 2 ALTERNATIVE SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS [In millions of dollars] Note: In interpreting the above, reference should be made to the footnotes in table 10. TABLE 15.-OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND THE DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS, COMBINED DURING SELECTED CALENDAR YEARS 1960-73 Note: in interpreting the above, reference should be made to the footnotes in table 10. 30 TABLE 16.-EXPENDITURES FROM THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TAXABLE PAYROLL FOR SELECTED CALENDAR YEARS 1960-73 AND ESTIMATED FUTURE PERCENTAGES FOR CALENDAR YEARS 1974-78 UNDER 2 ALTERNATIVE SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS 1 Percentage takes into account (1) the lower contribution rate payable by the self-employed compared with combined employee-employer rate; (2) employee contributions subject to refund; and (3) that for 1966 and later,only the employee contribution is payable on tips taxable as wages. Beginning in 1966, expenditures are adjusted to exclude payments to certain noninsured persons aged 72 and over with less than 3 quarters of coverage, costs of which are financed from the general fund of the Treasury. For 1969-73, percentages are preliminary and subject to revision. In interpreting the estimates, reference should be made to the accompanying text which describes the underlying assumptions. |