SCIENTISTS' STATEMENT

GLOBAL CLIMATIC DISRUPTION

JUNE 18, 1997

We are scientists who are familiar with the causes and effects of climatic change as summarized recently by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We endorse those reports and observe that the further accumulation of greenhouse gases commits the earth irreversibly to further global climatic change and consequent ecological, economic and social disruption. The risks associated with such changes justify preventive action through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases. In ratifying the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States agreed in principle to reduce its emissions. It is time for the United States, as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, to fulfill this commitment and demonstrate leadership in a global effort.

Human-induced global climatic change is under way. The IPCC concluded that global mean surface air temperature has increased by between about 0.5 and 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years and anticipates a further continuing rise of 1.8 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit during the next century. Sea-level has risen on average 4-10 inches during the past 100 years and is expected to rise another 6 inches to 3 feet by 2100. Global warming from the increase in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere causes an amplified hydrological cycle resulting in increased precipitation and flooding in some regions and more severe aridity in other areas. The IPCC concluded that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate." The warming is expected to expand the geographical ranges of malaria and dengue fever and to open large new areas to other human diseases and plant and animal pests. Effects of the disruption of climate are sufficiently complicated that it is appropiate to assume there will be effects not now anticipated.

Our familiarity with the scale, severity, and costs to human welfare of the disruptions that the climatic changes threaten leads us to introduce this note of urgency and to call for early domestic action to reduce US emissions via the most cost-effective means. We encourage other nations to join in similar actions with the purpose of producing a substantial and progressive global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions beginning immediately. We call attention to the fact that there are financial as well as environmental advantages to reducing emissions. More than 2000 economists recently observed that there are many potential policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions for which total benefits outweigh the total costs.

The Framework Convention on Climate Change, ratified by the United States and more than 165 other nations, calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that will protect human interests and nature. The Parties to the Convention will meet in December, 1997, in Kyoto, Japan to prepare a protocol implementing the convention. We urge that the United States enter that meeting with a clear national plan to limit emissions, and a recommendation as to how the U.S. will assist other nations in significant steps toward achieving the joint purpose of stabilization.

Dr. John P. Holdren

Dr. Jane Lubchenco

Dr. Harold A. Mooney

INITIAL SIGNATORIES

Dr. Peter H. Raven
Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland
Dr. George M. Woodwell

Endorsed by over 2,600 Scientists

July 28, 1997

In the pages that follow are the names of over 2,600 scientists who have joined in calling upon the United States to take global leadership in reducing emissions of the heat-trapping gases that are causing global climatic disruption. The principal gas is carbon dioxide from burning oil, gas and coal.

Scientists do not often join in calling for governmental leadership on environmental questions of global concern. In this instance, they have the detailed background of a century of careful study capped by two recent reviews of the issue by more than 2,000 scientists from around the world who worked under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The product is the most comprehensive study of a global environmental issue ever produced, as important as the studies of nuclear weapons and the hazards of radioactivity of earlier years.

The scientists who signed the statement are all experts with broad experience in
addressing various aspects of the disruptions of climate. Thirty-six of the signatories are
members of the National Academy of Sciences. Three are Nobel Laureates. They range
in specialties from physical chemistry and biochemistry though oceanography and
climatology to geography and ecology. They are college presidents, advisors to
governments, members of governmental staffs, and scientific participants in the private
sector. They are advisors to President Clinton and researchers from private
laboratories. They are textbook authors and a former Secretary of the Smithsonian,
conservationists, landowners, reclusive academicians, and active publicists of science.
They are citizens, native born and immigrant, they are from every ethnic group. But
above all, they are seriously concerned that failure of the United States to act now will
be a very costly error for us, and our children.

Please read the statement carefully. It calls for a bold new departure on the part of the
United States.....now.

Signatories to the Scientists' Statement - NAS Members

These institutions are listed for identification purposes only. They do not represent the endorsement of the institution listed.

Signatories to the Scientists' Statement - Alabama

These institutions are listed for identification purposes only. They do not represent the endorsement of the institution listed.

Signatories to the Scientists' Statement - Alaska

These institutions are listed for identification purposes only. They do not represent the endorsement of the institution listed.