the Congress as well as others to come. He made the statement the other day that, as long as we maintained our present determination to support certain commitments, we had to have this money.

BASIC ASSUMPTIONS QUESTIONED

As I understand it, these estimates are based on the assumption that we are prepared to support a full-scale war in Asia, a full-scale war in the European theater, and a smaller one in Latin Ameri: a, all of them simultaneously.

If that is true, I think it is beyond our reasonable capacity. In fact I think it is beyond the probabilities of the situation. I agreed with Senator Cannon, and still do, that it is up to us to reexamine these assumptions, which may have been valid in another day.

MEANING OF CZECHOSLOVAKIA

On page 1, you mention Czechoslovakia. This has been overworked and mentioned every time the matter of defense is brought up. There has appeared a great difference of opinion as to the significance of Czechoslovakia. You say it would be foolhardy to expect early abatement of fear of aggression in Europe, suggesting that the Czechoslovakian incident raises a greater probability of aggression against Western Europe than before.

Do you really think that is what Czechoslovakia means?

Secretary LAIRD. Well, Mr. Chairman, I am sure that members of this committee were as surprised as Members of the House and the executive branch of the Government by the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Soviet Union. This was not a predictable act, and I do believe that it does make it necessary for us to reevaluate the situation that exists in Eastern Europe.

I do not believe that any congressional committee predicted—and certainly our intelligence community did not predict that the Soviet Union would move into Czechoslovakia last August. This was a very successful military operation. It was carried out very effectively, I have been briefed in detail, and I want to assure the chairman and the members of this committee that, from the standpoint of a military operation, it was conducted in a very effective and efficient manner. The CHAIRMAN. There is no question about that. But I do not quite. know why you think that answers my question. Does this mean that you are more apprehensive about their attacking Western Europe or that prior to that attack you did not believe the Russians had the capacity for invading a small country like Czechoslovakia? You never had any doubt about their capacity to occupy Czechoslovakia did you? Secretary LAIRD. I had no doubt about their capacity, but I have to admit that I did have some doubt in my mind about their intentionsas to whether they would. I had no doubts about their capability, and I would like to say to the members of this committee that the overall Soviet military posture in Europe has been strengthened. Their capability has been improved, especially through the partial mobilization of other forces. They have deployed their forces in a more forward position. Six more Soviet divisions are deployed in this general area that can be used to insure the dependability of the East European

countries.

The CHAIRMAN. Then you are suggesting you think they may be preparing for invasion of Western Europe.

Secretary LAIRD. No, I was not suggesting that, Mr. Chairman. I was merely responding to your question as to whether they had the capability, and my answer to that is that they do have that capability. I did not predict and I do not believe any congressional committee predicted that they would use that capability as they did last August, but they did move forward, very successfully and very effectively, into Czechoslovakia.

The CHAIRMAN. You know we get right back to capability versus intention just like we did in another connection. Many people have and I think the Europeans who live much closer than we do have not interpreted Czechoslovakia as a threat of invasion of Western Europe. They certainly have not responded in a way that would indicate apprehension about it. To use this as justification for a continuation of a program of very large expenditures of our own funds, in the face of their different interpretation, seems to me to be very questionable. I do not know why we are so much more apprehensive about the Russians and their intentions in Western Europe than the Western Europeans are. I do not know of any substantial increase that the NATO countries in Europe have made in response to Czechoslovakia. I think they have interpreted this invasion, the way I read the papers and the reports, as a fear by the Russians of the spread of free press and freedom generally into their own country. In other words, it was a sign of weakness and lack of security on the part of the Russians to developments in Czechoslovakia. And I believe that the actions, at least of Western Europeans, support that because they have not reacted by a large increase in military establishments.

CAPABILITIES VERSUS INTENTIONS

Anyway, this is not a capability problem. I am not saying that the Russians are not capable of overrunning Western Europe, of launching an all out nuclear war and so on. But I must submit again that we ought to be concerned with the probabilities of what they are likely to do and not just capabilities alone because there is no end to the possibilities, if we use our imagination, and that means no end whatever to or no limits upon military expenditures. I think you know we are all trying to find a way to bring some reasonable limits into these expenditures simply because our internal domestic situation is so deplorable. That is really what we are trying to balance off.

Secretary LAIRD. Well, I certainly tried to help in that regard, Mr. Chairman. Since I have been Secretary of Defense we have reduced the authorization request that was submitted by the previous administration for fiscal year 1970 by about $312 billion. We have cut back expenditures some $1.6 billion. We have gone forward with a continuing review of all our procurement procedures and practices. We have identified overruns and have tried to be as open and as informative as we possibly could, not only to this committee but to the entire Congress.

In answer to your question, however, as to whether the Soviet Union has these capabilities, I think that it is necessary for me to say that they do have those capabilities. I have been encouraged, however, by certain recent speeches that have been made by some of the Soviet leaders,

and we are hopeful that, within the very near future, we will be able to enter into negotiations with the Soviet Union concerning strategic offensive and defensive weapons.

I do not believe that anyone predicted the action with respect to Czechoslovakia. As you know, it occurred on the eve of this country's announcement that we were going to go forward with the so-called SALT talks, and it was on the basis of this invasion that the former administration made certain changes in its overall strategy regarding these discussions.

So, I think it was a significant event, and I do not believe it is one that we can completely forget.

HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR DISPUTE

The CHAIRMAN. You say in your statement that in our own hemisphere, active insurgencies exist currently in Colombia, Guatemala, and Venezuela. I wonder why you do not mention El Salvador and Honduras which, according to this morning's radio, are now using guns as the outcome of a soccer game.

Secretary LAIRD. Mr. Chairman, that is more of an exchange between countries than an insurgency within a country. I do wish to report, though, that when I came over today, things were somewhat quiet, at least for the present. As you know, a team was dispatched last night by the Organization of American States. This is really a conflict between two countries. The C-47 that was used for a so-called bombing raid did inflict some damage, as you know, Mr. Chairman. I do not believe, however, that we can put this in the category of insurgency within the country. It is an exchange between two countries. The CHAIRMAN. But it is a fact that we have provided about $6 million to El Salvador and $8 million to Honduras. In other words, we have given them both the means to carry on a war if they chose to, haven't we?

Secretary LAIRD. I have their force structures here.

The CHAIRMAN. I do not know that they need any more. These are published articles, Mr. Reporter, and I think we ought to put them in the record just for the record.

(The articles referred to follow :)

[From the Washington Post, July 14, 1969]

HONDURAS, SALVADOR CLASH AT BORDER

TEGUCIGALPA, HONDURAS, July 13-Honduras today claimed its troops killed four Salvadoran soldiers in a clash in Honduras in the continuing "soccer war" between the two Central American republics.

The clash occurred yesterday eight miles from the frontier, the government said.

Meanwhile, the National Civic Committee called on its members throughout the country to take all measures necessary for civil defense.

Honduras and El Salvador recently severed diplomatic relations after riots over a series of elimination games between them for the finals next year of the world soccer cup.

Both countries have accused each other of aggression across the border.

In San Salvador official reports said mortar, machine gun and small arms fire was exchanged by Honduras and Salvadoran border patrols early Sunday.

The reports to the Salvadoran government said the 2-hour clash occurred at the frontier point of El Poy.

[From the Washington Post, July 15, 1969]

HONDURANS SAY SALVADOR BOMBS CITIES

Honduras formally accused El Salvador of bombing several Honduran towns yesterday.

At an emergency meeting of the Organization of American States called in Washington, Honduran representative Jorge Fidel Duron said the Salvadoran army had invaded 40 miles into Honduras.

But he later told The Washington Post that the information he had on that point had not been confirmed and that there had been no ground invasion. He said Honduran troops had orders not to counterattack into Salvadoran territory if attacked.

The charges came minutes after OAS council named a peace-keeping team to investigate border clashes.

In Washington, Ambassador Midence Soto of Honduras said according to reports, an El Salvador army force of more than 9000 men launched a massive attack across the border.

He also said "There was indiscriminate bombing and machinegunning of schools and hospitals without precision or military objectives."

Reports from the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa said the invasion came at Amatillo in southern Honduras and Poy in the west.

Santa Rosa de Copan, the fourth largest town in Honduras, and several smaller towns were reported bombed and strafed.

The reports said the attack was carried out by P51 Mustang aircraft.

UPI reported from the Honduran capitol that the air force base there was attacked at about 6 p.m. when a Salvadoran C47 appeared followed by fighters. The UPI reporter said he could hear bomb explosions as the planes passed over. The city was immediately blacked-out.

At the OAS emergency meeting, Salvadoran representative Julio A. Rivera termed the Honduran charges a smoke-screen to hide what he termed the massive deportation of Salvadoran residents from Honduras.

Honduran radio broadcasts monitored in Nicaragua advised Honduran citizens to stay in their homes and to follow carefully instructions on "how to survive in case of attack."

From San Salvador, capital of El Salvador, Washington Post staff writer Lewis H. Diuguid reported that the government had ordered a complete blackout in the entire country.

He said the authorities would not say why the lights were cut, but that Salvadoran officials said privately that they feared a Honduran invasion was under way, but that they were not certain.

In San Salvador, capital of El Salvador, Foreign minister Jose Guerrero said his country was not at war with Honduras, but he said, there was a state of aggression by Honduras.

The Salvadoran government did not acknowledge Honduras radio broadcasts reporting the ground and air attacks. Guerrero said Salvadoran troops had interrupted an Honduran army message saying hundreds of Salvadoran youths in Honduras had been in jail.

The Honduran government was said to have ordered an immediate air and ground counterattack. Honduran fighters, World War II propeller-driven Corsairs, were reported to be in the air.

Earlier yesterday evening, the OAS council approved sending a seven-nation peace team to El Salvador and Honduras to avert a military clash. Argentina, Ecuador, the United States, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Guatemala were asked to form the team.

The OAS council acted after Honduras charged El Salvador with eight incidents yesterday in which Salvadoran forces opened fire on an Honduran border post.

Secretary LAIRD. As far as this bill is concerned

The CHAIRMAN. Will this bill provide any money that will be available for these countries?

Secretary LAIRD. We will supply the figures for the committee. There are small amounts included for each of these two countries. (The information is classified and is in the committee files.)

ARMS TO INDIA AND PAKISTAN

The CHAIRMAN. You mentioned in your statement also that Russia is now supplying India with arms. Well, we have been supplying, we did supply, Pakistan with substantial arms, and offered them to India. Are they doing anything different from what we did.

Secretary LAIRD. At the present time, the major supplier to India is, of course, the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union supplied over $600 million worth of arms to India. As the members of this committee know, we are not currently supplying any lethal weapons to either India or Pakistan, and have not been doing so for several years-not since the exchange between those two countries.

PROPOSED TANK SALE BY TURKEY TO PAKISTAN

The CHAIRMAN. What is the situation with regard to the tanks which we have been reading about in the paper that would be supplied by, I think, Turkey, our tanks?

Secretary LAIRD. This would be a third party sale between Turkey and Pakistan. It is true that the tanks were supplied to Turkey by the United States. No agreement has been finalized. It had been approved at the highest level by the previous administration, but no agreement has been finalized.

As you know, Mr. Chairman, whenever a country that has received assistance under the military assistance program wishes to dispose of or sell equipment provided by the United States, it must have the approval of the United States in accordance with the terms of the military assistance agreements. The idea in this case was that Pakistan would destroy certain tanks that it already had, and would receive these tanks from Turkey. Turkey would receive continuing support through our military assistance program. This arrangement was approved by President Johnson, but the final agreement has not been worked out.

The CHAIRMAN. Can you tell us whether it is the intention of this administration to approve it subject to working out some details?

Secretary LAIRD. Mr. Chairman, there are certain difficulties that have arisen. I can assure you that they are being reviewed at the present time. Although a commitment was evidently made in this case, difficulties have arisen, and I would not want to give you a definite yes or no to that question.

COMMITMENTS OF PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION

The CHAIRMAN. You use that very troublesome word "commitment,” I do not know how you use it. Do you mean you consider we are committed by the previous administration to approve the sale? Do you feel that our country is committed to it-morally or legally or how? Secretary LAIRD. I think probably not, legally. I think that the previous administration was rather strong in its assurance. I am not prepared to get into legal technicalities. I am really not prepared to discuss the matter but it is being looked into.

The CHAIRMAN. If it is not a legal commitment, just speaking for myself, I would like to suggest that you not feel quite as committed to