NET REVENUE FORECASTS This section summarizes the net revenue results for three fare systems for fiscal years 1977 to 2020. Detailed results are shown in Table VIII-I for fare system 11, the system selected by WMATA for further detailed analysis. The projected net revenues for all three fare systems over the financial planning horizon are given in Table VIII-II. Because of the free transfer and low base fares, fare system I will never be able to generate enough revenue to overcome the high operating costs estimated. Early year operating deficits would run as high as $90 million and would never fall below $73 million (in 1976 constant dollars). For fare system I, revenues would exceed operating costs by FY 2013. Fare system 111, with the highest average fares, would show positive net revenues from FY 1983 onward. Net revenues would then rise steadily to $43.4 million for FY 2020. SUMMARY It has been transit policy in the Washington area that there be a reasonable relationship between the amount of service used by a rider and the fare charged. Additionally, the fare structure must be related to the costs of providing service. There are many other criteria which a fare structure must meet to ensure equity amongst transit users and to foster other civic objectives. In the last few years, Washington area residents have realized the vital role transit plays and have been willing to subsidize a portion of bus operating costs. The extent to which residents will continue such support must be considered by local authorities in setting future fare policy. This project has developed an estimate of the financial future for transit in the nation's capitol, and has given the WMATA Board of Directors three distinct fare alternative to examine. |