A detailed analysis for fare system i was made for 1990 and a 1990 total cost estimate for fare system I was extrapolated from these two. Although fare system I would require more rail cars in 1990 than fare system I, it was assumed that fare system I would require the same fleet size. Operating costs for the remaining years were derived from the detailed early year and fourth year estimates prepared for fare system 1. Rail operating costs for selected years for the three fare systems are given in Table VII-V.

BUS OPERATING COSTS

As in the two previous net income analyses, a detailed examination of bus expenses was carried out using the computer-projected 1990 bus route traffic volumes. In this study, however, it was possible to utilize the 20-months experience of WMATA as the operator of a unified regional bus system to estimate unit operating costs.

Bus Operating Requirements

As described in Chapter III, an extensive bus system to feed and complement the METRO system was assumed for 1990. This system is indicative in terms of level of service and operating costs of what will exist in 1990. to serve the regional growth forecasts assumed for this project. This service will satisfy the various trip types anticipated, with schedules tailored to meet ridership demands or policy considerations. Where volumes are heaviest service will be scheduled so that ridership never exceeds 120% of seats in the peak, or 100% of seats in the offpeak. Recent screenline counts have indicated that in the peak, ridership does not exceed 94% of this capacity and in the offpeak, approximately 50%. These considerations, therefore, were incorporated into the estimates of service requirements. It was further assumed that the average bus in the fleet would contain 50 seats.

A number of other important assumptions based on WMATA or industry experience were required. Operating costs are most heavily dependent on peak period requirements. Hence, the 1990 assigned volumes were used to determine service requirements and cutback points along the length of the 236 assumed bus lines. A similar analysis was carried out for the typical midday hour to estimate base period service requirements. The evening period demand was assumed to be one-half base levels and service requirements were again developed on a line-by-line basis. In no case was service scheduled less than hourly where reasonable demands for service appeared to exist. It was assumed that 50 vehicles would be required to operate owl service.

Service was assumed to operate at four basic levels during the typical weekday. In this manner, the buildup and breakdown of peak period service would be considered. The hours of operation assumed at each level were

Fiscal Year

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TABLE VII-V

SUMMARY OF ANNUAL RAIL OPERATING COST ESTIMATES!/

(In 1976 Constant Dollars)

Annual Operating Costs (Millions)

FARE SYSTEM

Early year data assumes the phase-in schedule presented in Chapter II! with full operations by July, 1982.

WMATA-Traffic, Revenue, and Operating Costs 1975

These assumptions include deadhead and interline running, but neglect layover time which was estimated at 14.6%.

As described in Chapter V, over 80,000 daily trips will use bus access because of parking limitations at METRO stations. The bus operating requirements were accordingly increased by 3 to 4% to account for this phenomenon. The assumed number of buses on the raod in each period for fare system I is then:

The peak vehicle estimate for fare system II is 2,198. The daily operating requirements for fare systems I and II are given in Table VII-VI .

Annual Requirements

In consideration of the number of Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays during the year, a factor of 321 equivalent weekdays was used to determine annual vehicle-miles and vehicle hours. The annual operating requirements are presented in Table VII-VII. For fare system 111, the peak vehicle requirement is estimated at 2,115 with a total fleet size of 2,327 in 1990.

A study was made of the detailed operating expenses of the METRO system, leading to a classification of each operating expense item into one of four major elements which have been used to allocate particular expense items. These four elements are: vehicle-hours, vehicle-miles- peak hour vehicles, and revenue passengers.

This "four factor" formula has been developed to simplify the allocation of operating costs to individual routes or sectors of the transit network.

Vehicle Hours

The wages of drivers and administrative personnel represents the largest single element of the cost of the METRO system, having accounted for 66% of the total cost per mile in the first seven months of fiscal year 1973-74. Employees engaged in operating vehicles are paid on an hourly basis; allocation of this expense would be most properly made on the basis of hours of service. This is best estimated by the aggegrate vehicle-hours operated in the system and this is the basis which has been used to allocate the wages of transit

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A more detailed explanation of this analysis is contained in Working
Paper Number 6, "Bus Operating Costs."

personnel. Welfare expense of the employees is another classification that has been allocated on a vehicle-hour basis. Since operating personnel is the largest group of employees with the bulk of the amount assigned directly to them, these non-payroll labor costs have been allocated in the same manner as the direct wages.

Vehicle-Miles

Garage expenses such as fuel, lubricants, maintenance and servicing of revenue equipment, tires, tubes, and other related costs are directly related to the miles of operation. Engineering expenses has also been assigned to vehicle-miles.

Revenue-Passengers

Operating costs resulting from personal injuries and property damage have been assigned to total revenue passengers for the system. Since accident costs are directly related to the amount of exposure, revenue passengers is the more appropriate method for allocating these costs.

Peak Hour Vehicles

Expenses resulting from the provision of operating facilities and storage is a function of the total number of vehicles required to operate the system during peak hours. Maintenance of buildings, grounds, service vehicles, shop expenses, and miscellaneous operating expenses are allocated to peak hour vehicles.

The cost model development used data from Metrobus operations statements for 1973-74, with appropriate adjustments for a labor dispute which reduced operations in May, 1974. The unit costs developed were escalated by 10% to reach 1975 levels and by 9% (compounded) to reach the 1976 constant dollar figures used throughout this report. The unit costs in 1976 constant dollars are as follows: 1/

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Metrobus financial summaries include an expense under Administrative and General of costs allocated from METRO Executive Management and Project Management. Those costs have not been allocated in estimating the model parameter unit costs. Rather, a separate category of Administrative Expenses has been developed.