computed considering the proportion of the year each phase would be in operation. The fare system 11 ridership and revenue as allocated to

bus and rail are given for each phase in Table VI-IV. Although bus ridership will continue to grow during the early years of rail operations, the shorter trip lengths will result in lower average bus fares. Fare system

III with the same fare structure shows a similar pattern, but at a higher level. Fare system I shows revenue growth for both bus and rail during this period. The forecasts of total patronage and revenues by phase for all three fare systems are shown in Table VI-V.

Mid-Year Estimates (1983-1990)

Patronage and revenue estimates for the fiscal years from 1983 to 1990 were obtained by linear interpolation between the phase seven estimates and the 1990 estimates presented earlier in detail. Allowance was made for the shift between fiscal years and calendar years.

Later Year Estimates (1991-2020)

The extrapolation of ridership trends beyond 1990 required that certain assumptions be made concerning regional growth. The land use forecasts used for the basic projections extend only to 1992.1 These population forecasts were extrapolated on a jurisdictional basis for the area within the 1065-zone cordon with consideration given to ultimate holding capacities. The assumed 2020 population was 5,898,000 as compared to a 1990 population of 4,187,000 for the same area. Patronage and revenue estimates for calendar year 2020 were then prepared for each fare system. The fare system II allocations to bus and rail are indicated in Table VI-IV with a summary for all three fare systems included in Table VI-V. Linear interpolation was used for the intervening years.

Supplementary Estimates

Each of the items identified as a source of supplementary revenue was analyzed separately and assumed to follow the regional patterns in some growth characteristics such as population or transit ridership. Separate consideration was given to the expected surge in charter work during the Bicentennial celebrations and the replacement of some contract operations by regularly scheduled service. Linear interpolation was used as necessary between time points for which detailed estimates were prepared.

1/

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, Zonal Land Use Allocations for Regional Travel Demand Forecasts, Alternate 6.2 as Modified.

TABLE VI-IV

WMATA-Traffic, Revenue, and Operating Costs-1975

TABLE VI-V

In 1976 constant dollars.

WMATA-Traffic, Revenue, and Operating Costs 1975

GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES

There are certain job classifications within a multi-mode transit operating agency for which mode-specific responsibilities are difficult to assign. These positions are not directly related to transportation and support the operation of the agency as an agency, per se. Included, amongst others, are the offices of general manager, general counsellor, treasurer, and controller and directors of personnel, purchasing, planning, public relations, and data processing. Also, functions related to marketing, intergovernmental relations and real estate.

A detailed analysis of the staff requirements for these functions was undertaken for 1990. The total personnel requirements was estimated to be 178 with a salary budget of $3,042,434 in 1976 constant dollars. Support costs were estimated at $365,092 (12% of salaries as in current budgets). For other years, the general and administrative expenses were assumed to be proportional to the number of riders on the system. Equivalent values were used for the three fare systems.

Chapter VII

System Operating Costs

The year 1990, which was the design year utilized for patronage forecasting, was also used to prepare estimates of full system operating costs. In addition, detailed estimates were also prepared for the various operating phases as the system is implemented and for each fourth year beyond 1990.

Regional transit services for all years were assumed to be a single, unified publicly operated system composed of rail operations of the METRO Authorized Regional System (ARS) and the complementary bus services described in Chapter II. This chapter presents the operating, maintenance and administrative expenses estimated for 1990 regional METRO transit operations. Three sets of operating cost estimates are given; one for each of the fare systems considered. The cost differences arise due to the variations in patronage associated with each fare system. Separate estimates are presented for rail operations, bus operations and general system administration.

RAIL OPERATING COSTS

Description of the System

For purposes of this analysis the METRO rail services were assumed to be implemented in eight operating phases with the full 98 mile system in operation on July 15, 1981. The rail services offered were assumed to be composed of four major lines.

This line would operate from Rockville to Glenmont via the downtown central business district with major transfer stations at Metro Center and Gallery Place. An additional transfer station is located at Fort Totten.

Vienna New Carrollton Line

This line operates from Nutley Road in Vienna to New Carrollton via Rosslyn and the upper river crossing into the downtown central business district and then east to the New Carrollton terminal adjacent to the Beltway High Speed Rail Station. Major transfer stations are Metro Center and L'Enfant Plaza. Also, transfers to other lines may be made at Rosslyn and Stadium-Armory Station.