Chapter I PURPOSE OF THE STUDY This report is the recond update to a series of financial projections for the development of a rapid rail transit system for the Washington, D. C. metropolitan area. To meet this objective, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority engaged Alan M. Voorhees & Associates (AMV). In 1955, the U.S. Congress authorized studies which led to the formation of the National Capital Transportation Agency (NCTA) a temporary federal agency formed to plan and develop the rail system. As a result of the studies conducted by NCTA, the decision was made to proceed with implementation of the regional rail transit system. Congressional legislation and the compact among the various local jurisdictions, established in 1966, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) charged with the task of planning and constructing the METRO rail system. This charge included both physical and financial planning for the system. One of the first efforts conducted by WMATA was a 1968 analysis of Traffic, Revenue and Operating Costs for the proposed system. The purpose of that study was to determine how many patrons would use the system in each year of operation through 2020, how much revenue would be generated, the relationship of revenues to operating costs, the amount of revenue which would be available to repay bonds issued for system construction, the amount of capital costs which would not be recovered from operating revenues, the allocation of these costs among the various jurisdictions and the impact of the METRO rail system on the then privately-owned bus companies. The major finding of that study was that fare-box revenues, if fares were increased at the same rate of operating costs, would be sufficient not only to pay for system operation, but also to cover a substantial portion of system capital costs. In 1971, a second analysis of system traffic, revenue and operating costs was conducted. This study was initiated because planning efforts by other agencies had indicated shifts from the projections utilized in the 1968 analysis in projected population and employment levels for the 1990 design year. Further, it had become apparent that both system construction and operating costs would be higher than anticipated in 1968. The projected fare level and ridership, however, were also significantly higher than in the 1968 study, yielding a favorable financial forecast. The timing of the study presented in this report was determined by the compact establishing WMATA which called for a review of system costs, and the allocation among jurisdictions, prior to five years after initiation of construction (December 9, 1974). Several other factors also suggested the need for a new study. By 1973, WMATA had been authorized to operate the transit systems in the Metropolitan area and had completed purchase and consolidation of the previously privately-owned bus systems. Operating costs had continued to rise, but there had been no increase in fares. The Council of Governments had not only prepared new estimates of design year population and employment, but had also developed a new procedure for forecasting transit patronage. Each of these items suggested the need for a complete re-analysis of both METRO rail and full transit system traffic, revenue and operating costs over the design period. SCOPE OF THE STUDY In 1974-75 analysis of WMATA projected patronage and net revenue began with a complete review of anticipated regional land use and travel patterns and new projections of transit travel for the year 1992. These activities were carried out by the Council of Governments (COG). In this projection of transit use, COG took account of the adopted regional highway plan, as well as the planned METRO rail and bus services. Review of prior forecasts and design of a feeder bus system to complement rail operations preceded the forecasting of transit patronage. Three separate transit patronage forecasts were made one for each of three assumed METRO fare systems composed of different levels of fares and structures for assessing charges. For The COG transit patronage forecasts for 1992 were then adjusted back to 1990 so that they might be comparable with the prior WMATA analysis. each fare structure revenues were computed based on the number of riders and the fare system. In addition, rail and bus operations required to serve the projected patronage were determined, and operating costs were estimated based on current WMATA experience for bus services and on anticipated requirements for the rail services. The patronage, revenue, and operating cost estimates for 1990 were then used as a basis for financial analysis from opening of the system in 1975 through to the year 2020. This required analysis of areas served as each construction phase was completed, shifts between bus and rail travel and the potential for growth beyond 1990. For the cost analysis, a projection was made of cost escalation from the 1974 study year through 1976. Beyond 1976, however, all cost and revenue analyses were carried out in terms of 1976 constant dollars with no differential between fare and operating cost escalation. The results of the financial analysis were presented at the WMATA-sponsored Airlie House Conference in November, 1974. During 1975, supplemental analysis and documentation took place. In addition to the overall system analysis, the study also developed data for the various elements contained in the system cost allocation formula specified in the WMATA compact. The final purpose of the study was to update data for the planning and design of stations and routes based on the revised land use forecasts prepared by COG. The following chapters in this report summarize the results of each major stage of the analysis in the sequence in which they were carried out. A series of nine working papers prepared for this project describe the methodology and results in more detail. The land use and travel demand forecasts are described in documents prepared by or for COG. A complete list of these sources is contained in Appendix B. NOTE: Chapter II, which follows, is in draft form. A completed final version has been promised by COG for inclusion in the final report. CHAPTER II FUTURE LAND USE AND HIGHWAY SYSTEM A. FUTURE LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) for 1990. was responsible for preparing regional land use activity forecasts During 1972 COG had prepared a series of incremental land use forecasts using a mathematical computer-based model known as EMPIRIC.1 The model assumed an economic forecast of total regional growth in terms of land activity, and predicted by small area, the change in shares of growth for households and jobs during that growth period, the allocation of activity growth was influenced by various assumed policies affecting growth among which was the projected long range highway and transit system. The forecasts used in this study are focussed on an Empiric run known as Alternative 6,2. Transportation facilities were assumed to be those embodied in the adopted Long Range Transportation Plan for the National Capital Region.2 Generally, the plan assumed construction of the Adopted Regional Transit System (98 miles) plus extensions then planned by WMATA. The highway system was projected to comprise several additional major freeways such as the Outer Beltway and the completion of Interstate 66. This major increase in the quality of the transportation system resulted in substantial increases in forecasted suburban growth. This particular forecast was the latest in a series of EMPIRIC model runs, and the results were extensively reviewed by COG and its member 1 "Empiric" Activity Allocation Model Application to the Washington Metropolitan Region. Peat Marwick, Mitchel & Co. December 1972. 2 A Long Range Transportation Plan for the National Capital Region. June 20, 1973. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/ National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board. |