1.5 1.0 (a) Stratospheric Temperature (°C) [MSU Channel 4] (c) Planetary Energy Imbalance (Heat Storage in Ocean, W/m2) Figure 5. Simulated temperatures and planetary energy imbalance for the forcings in Figure 3 (6). The business-asusual (1% CO2/year) adds 2.9 W/m2 forcing in 2001-2050. The alternative scenario adds a greenhouse gas forcing of 1.1 W/m2 in that period and includes volcanoes similar to those during 1951-2000. Figure 6. Cartoon depicting approximate added climate forcings between in an extreme "business-as-usual” scenario and the "alternative" scenario. Figure 7. Measured greenhouse gas amounts and "alternative scenario" extensions to 2050. IS92a scenarios of IPCC (2) for CO2, CH, and N2O are illustrated for comparison. The sum of CFC and "other trace gas" forcings is constant after 2000 in the alternative scenario. Carbon (10° Tons) Figure 8. Annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels in the United States (principal data source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Department of Energy) Figure 9. Annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels in the world (principal data source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Department of Energy) The CHAIRMAN. Thank you, Dr. Hansen. I want to thank all the witnesses for being here. Dr. Lindzen, you said we need to support science without promoting alarmism. How do you do that, and if you would speak close to the mike. Dr. LINDZEN. A good question. It seems to me that to some extent that will require more trust of the scientific community. Essentially, in the post war period you typically had from the Armed Forces 5-year grants covering significant numbers of scientists, minimal paperwork, and so on. This was a very productive period for science. As you ask for more direct evidence of relevance, the easiest form of relevance becomes alarm, and you encourage a kind of bad trend. I do not have an easy answer to it, but I think it is something that should be thought out. You do not want bias built into your scientific support system. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. It is my understanding that all five members of the panel have been involved in the IPCC report. Dr. Lindzen said that hundreds of scientists were never asked, that the report was changed in Shanghai, and that significant pressure was exerted. I would like to hear the other four witnesses' response to those rather serious statements. Dr. Ramaswamy, we will begin with you, sir. Dr. RAMASWAMY. I think—and this is going to be a long-winded answer, but the transfer of what is in the detailed technical chapter report, the transfer of that information to the summary for policymakers admittedly involves lots of careful choices of words and sentences and phrases, because it has to be a short summary, and so doubtless, you know, some of the information that is in the chapters will not appear in the summary. But I must say I was there in Shanghai. I was there in the plenary, and I believe there were lead authors from-I have not checked carefully, but I think the lead authors from all the chapters were present at the meeting in Shanghai. The way the deliberations went concerning the summary for policymakers: First of all, the draft was drawn up by scientists; any changes that were to be introduced in Shanghai-if changes were to be introduced, it was only in response to some comments. If some reviewer had comments, or someone on the floor had some comments, then there were considerations of how the words had been crafted, how the sentence had been crafted, and after that the scientists had to agree, basically, on any language that went in. If the scientists objected, that language never made its appearance, and so I believe that scientists did contribute significantly to the sense expressed in the summary for policymakers. Admittedly not all the scientists were involved in the drafting process of the chapters there, but by and large there was a representation from, I believe, all the chapters there, so this was pretty important, because these scientists The CHAIRMAN. Was there pressure exerted to change the report? Dr. RAMASWAMY. No, there was no pressure exerted as far as I know. I was there on the floor on all the days, and there was no pressure exerted. In fact, there were moments when language that somebody would insist on was totally vetoed by the scientists, and |