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Effectiveness of presently planned emissions reductions actions.

Divergence in economic growth and energy price trends from projected values.

Administration emission projections reflect the first two types of uncertainty, but not the third.

B

C

E

סח

D

2000

1596 to

1691

GROUPING OPTIONS TO CAPTURE INTERRACTIVE EFFECTS

Examples from earlier Energy Policy Act analyses of long range (year 2010) impacts.

Synergistic Options: Options that produce a greater effect when imple-
mented jointly.

- Integrated Resource Planning and R&D (i.e., ground source heat pumps)
reduce carbon emissions by 2.0 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.
Together these options produced a 4.2 percent energy savings (rather than 3.6
percent) because utility IRP programs increase market penetration of energy
efficient technologies whose cost is lowered by the R&D program.

Offsetting Options: Options that partially cancel out each other when implemented jointly.

Standards (i.e., commercial lighting) and Integrated Resource Planning reduce carbon emissions 1.4 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.

Together these options reduce carbon emissions 4.2 percent (rather than 5.2 percent) because IRP promotes more efficient lighting at the same time that it is being required by law through the standard.

IDEAS

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