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Integrated framewo's relates U.S. energy demand, production and prices from 1950-2030;
Structural simulation approach explicitly represents key energy market mechanisms: energy investments, production, conversion technologies, end-use service demand and conservation.
Subjected to extensive peer review;
Continually improved and updated;
Used for the National Energy Plans since 1979;
Integrating model for the 1991 National Energy Strategy; Used for numerous energy policy analyses.
BASE CASE DEVELOPMENT
best point estimate of an uncertain future;
credible and consistent "point of departure" for option analysis.
calibration to EIA's 1993 Annual Energy Outlook;
the Energy Information Agency (EIA) is an independent statistical agency of DOE;
incorporation of assumptions from CEA, DOE,
and EPA to reflect policies already planned.
Two base cases were created
one with policies in place through FY92;
one including implementation of the 1992 Energy Policy Act, the Btu tax and the Clinton economic package; this base case is the starting point for the August plan development.
BASE CASE UNCERTAINTY
IDEAS projections of energy sector carbon emissions lie near the middle of
All projections, however, depend heavily on assumptions made regarding
Earlier sensitivity analyses using IDEAS showed that projected
65 MMT (about a 50 percent increase/decrease in pro-
18 MMT if oil prices decline/rise 1 percent annually
These uncertainties complicate the task of developing a plan that meets the