Integrated framework relates U.S. energy demand, production and prices from 1950-2030; Structural simulatio approach explicitly represents key energy market mechanisms: energy investments, production, conversion technologies, end-use service demand and conservation. Track Record: Subjected to extensive peer review; Continually improved and updated; Used for the National Energy Plans since 1979; Integrating model for the 1991 National Energy Strategy; Used for numerous energy policy analyses. Purpose BASE CASE DEVELOPMENT best point estimate of an uncertain future; credible and consistent "point of departure" for option analysis. Methodology calibration to EIA's 1993 Annual Energy Outlook; the Energy Information Agency (EIA) is an independent statistical agency of DOE; incorporation of assumptions from CEA, DOE, and EPA to reflect policies already planned. Two base cases were created one with policies in place through FY92; one including implementation of the 1992 Energy Policy Act, the Btu tax and the Clinton economic package; this base case is the starting point for the August plan development. IDEAS BASE CASE UNCERTAINTY IDEAS projections of energy sector carbon emissions lie near the middle of All projections, however, depend heavily on assumptions made regarding Earlier sensitivity analyses using IDEAS showed that projected 65 MMT (about a 50 percent increase/decrease in pro- 18 MMT if oil prices decline/rise 1 percent annually These uncertainties complicate the task of developing a plan that meets the IDEAS |